Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But no-one is immune from buying too high. Zooming in on an example, the Melco International Development Limited (HKG:200) share price dropped 70% in the last half decade. That's not a lot of fun for true believers. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 17% in the last 90 days.
After losing 4.9% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
Given that Melco International Development didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last half decade, Melco International Development saw its revenue increase by 20% per year. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. In contrast, the share price is has averaged a loss of 11% per year - that's quite disappointing. This could mean high expectations have been tempered, potentially because investors are looking to the bottom line. If you think the company can keep up its revenue growth, you'd have to consider the possibility that there's an opportunity here.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Melco International Development's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Melco International Development shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 59%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.
Melco International Development shareholders are up 22% for the year. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 10% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Melco International Development has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Melco International Development is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.