Marvell Technology (MRVL): Reassessing Valuation After Volatile Reaction to Hyperscaler Design Loss Fears

Marvell Technology (MRVL) has suddenly become a battleground stock after reports suggested it might lose key custom chip programs with Amazon Web Services and Microsoft, only for CEO Matt Murphy to firmly push back.

See our latest analysis for Marvell Technology.

The stock is still working through that drama in the charts, with a recent pullback giving way to choppy trading around $89.43 as investors weigh stellar Q3 results, Celestial AI deal plans and ongoing AI infrastructure wins against design loss fears. Over the near term, the weak 7 day share price return contrasts sharply with a strong 90 day share price return and robust multi year total shareholder returns. Together, these trends suggest long term momentum is intact even as sentiment resets.

If this kind of AI fueled volatility has you rethinking your watchlist, it is a good time to scan other high growth tech and AI names using high growth tech and AI stocks for fresh ideas.

With the shares still 30% below the average analyst target yet trading on lofty AI expectations, is Marvell a misunderstood value in the making, or a momentum name where the market is already pricing in tomorrow’s growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 2.5% Undervalued

With Marvell Technology closing at $89.43 against a narrative fair value of about $91.73, the story leans modestly positive and rests on ambitious AI infrastructure assumptions.

The company's success in securing multigenerational design wins with hyperscalers and ramping up a robust pipeline (over 50 new custom silicon opportunities representing $75 billion in lifetime value) positions Marvell to grow its data center market share from 13% to 20% of a fast-expanding $94B TAM by 2028, driving recurring and expanding revenue.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this pipeline turns into tomorrow's earnings power? The narrative leans on powerful growth, rising margins and a premium multiple usually reserved for elite chipmakers.

Result: Fair Value of $91.73 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, Marvell’s heavy data center reliance and lumpy custom AI projects mean any hyperscaler pullback or design loss could quickly undermine this optimistic view.

Find out about the key risks to this Marvell Technology narrative.

Build Your Own Marvell Technology Narrative

If you see the story differently or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Marvell Technology research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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