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    Newell Brands (NWL) Valuation After Job Cuts, Store Closures and Lowered Q4 Outlook

    Simply Wall St·12/12/2025 12:23:20
    語音播報

    Newell Brands (NWL) just paired a sweeping productivity overhaul, including more than 900 job cuts and 20 Yankee Candle store closures, with lowered Q4 guidance as Latin America sales improve more slowly than management expected.

    See our latest analysis for Newell Brands.

    Despite the sweeping restructuring moves, the share price has shown a 1 month share price return of about 18% and a 7 day share price return near 5%. However, that bounce sits against a much steeper year to date share price decline and a weak multiyear total shareholder return, suggesting recent momentum is more about shifting expectations than a clear change in the long term story.

    If this kind of turnaround risk is not your style, it might be worth widening the lens and exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for ideas where insiders are more visibly backing future growth.

    With the stock still trading at a steep discount to analyst targets despite sharp short term gains, the key question now is whether Newell remains materially undervalued or if the market is already pricing in a full recovery.

    Most Popular Narrative: 25.2% Undervalued

    With Newell Brands last closing at $3.87 against a narrative fair value of $5.18, the valuation case leans heavily on a medium term earnings rebuild.

    Analysts expect earnings to reach $482.4 million (and earnings per share of $1.1) by about September 2028, up from $-243.0 million today. In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -10.8x today.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Curious how a loss making consumer brand could earn its way into that higher multiple, while sales are only expected to nudge ahead slowly? The narrative leans on a specific mix of margin rebuilding and modest top line growth to close the gap between today’s pessimism and tomorrow’s projected cash generation, but the exact balance between the two may surprise you.

    Result: Fair Value of $5.18 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, persistent core sales weakness and elevated leverage could easily derail the margin rebuild, especially if consumer demand or tariff advantages deteriorate further.

    Find out about the key risks to this Newell Brands narrative.

    Build Your Own Newell Brands Narrative

    If you see the outlook differently or simply prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Newell Brands research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.