Guojin Securities: Hydrogen Energy Top Level Attention Raises Suggestions to Seize Window Period Layout

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that the top level of attention paid to hydrogen energy increased in 25 years, and policies at the national level were frequent and set high. The biggest difference between hydrogen energy in the “15th Five-Year Plan” and the “14th Five-Year Plan” period is that policies are more urgent and infrastructure is more complete. In the second half of the energy revolution — decarbonization in the non-electricity sector, hydroammonia alcohol is indispensable as an important energy carrier, and the entire industrial chain ushered in great opportunities for development. The industry is still in the early stages of commercialization. It is mainly driven by policies, focusing on a direction where domestic and foreign resonance, strong demand certainty, and flexibility are high. On segmented tracks, it is recommended to focus on green alcohol, hydrogen production equipment, fuel cell vehicles, and SOFC (solid oxide fuel cells).

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

Green alcohol: global demand resonates, industry embraces explosion and development certainty

Green methanol uses green shipping as a breakthrough, and domestic and foreign demand resonates. The EU's carbon tax and IMO policy are driving a shift towards greener shipping, and the general trend is clear. Judging from the scale of orders in the short term, 334 methanol-powered ships will be put into operation one after another, bringing demand for more than 7 million tons of methanol. In the medium to long term, when the global penetration rate of green methanol reaches 10%, demand will exceed 40 million tons. Green alcohol investment opportunities anchor green alcohol producers that start production early, cooperate with downstream shipowners, and have proper cost control, and may have excessive profit flexibility in the short term. Long-term logic sees that cost reduction will speed up the penetration rate of green alcohol in ships and methanol applications in the chemical field, and electric methanol will become the mainstream development direction in the future.

Hydrogen production equipment: policy driven+high economic visibility+application scenario execution, equipment has the greatest long-term space as a “shovel seller”

Direct connection to green electricity+equipment costs have been reduced, and the economy of green hydrogen has gradually become apparent. Guojin Securities uses wind power coupling hydrogen production as an example to calculate the economic efficiency of a new energy hydrogen production project. Referring to the Inner Mongolia policy, the total wind power price is 3.8 yuan/kWh, the energy storage price is 0.85 yuan/Wh, and the price of hydrogen production equipment is 0.9 yuan/W, with reference to the Inner Mongolia policy. Judging from the results, considering that some power generation is connected to the Internet, the overall operation of the new energy hydrogen production project is economical (IRR > 6.5%), which will enable many green hydrogen projects that had previously stagnated due to insufficient yield to start.

Direct connection to green electricity is also a key development direction. The corresponding hydrogen gas costs can be drastically reduced, and demand will also seep from the transportation sector and green alcohol, which are least sensitive to the price of green hydrogen, to industry, energy storage, etc., leading to a wave of green hydrogen projects and an increase in equipment tenders.

Fuel cell vehicles: The development path is clear, and the industry will bottom out and face a reversal

At this stage, development concerns have been dispelled, and fuel cell vehicle infrastructure, system price reductions, and application scenarios are all clear. The upstream hydrogen production terminal began large-scale supply, the number of hydrogen fueling stations increased, and industrial chain support was gradually put in place. In addition, the continuous implementation of targeted policies will also speed up the implementation process. Eliminating highway fees will accelerate the application and economic efficiency of fuel cell heavy trucks, and increase the certainty of fuel cell vehicle sales, thereby driving a recovery in the sector's prosperity, and leading relevant fuel cell companies have all gone public, starting to form a sector effect.

SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell): Driven by overseas AI data centers, demand ushered in breakthroughs in new scenarios

AI data centers are in high demand for electricity, and SOFC is suitable for main power supplies with the advantages of short installation cycle, fast production expansion time, and high power generation efficiency. Based on the 43,800 hours of SOFC system life, 85% power generation efficiency under combined heat and power supply, and a gas price of 4 US dollars/mmBTU, the cost of SOFC power generation is 0.11 US dollars/kWh. According to the US IRA and OBBB Act, manufacturers that use SOFC every year can receive a 30% ITC subsidy for project asset expenses, that is, the SoFC power generation cost will be reduced to 0.09 US dollars/kWh.

Further, considering the cost reduction brought about by future scale effects, when SOFC production reaches 2.5 GW level and above, and the system achieves a cost reduction of 50% or more, the SoFC power generation cost will drop to 0.06 US dollars/kWh. Compared with the power generation cost of gas turbines of about 0.048 kWh-0.107 kWh/kWh, it is beginning to be competitive, and SOFC can be competitive in a larger industrial and commercial market.

Investment advice

The industry is still in the early stages of commercialization, mainly driven by policies. It focuses on the direction of domestic and foreign resonance, strong demand certainty, and high flexibility. It is recommended to grasp the window layout: Goldwind Technology (02208), Huadian Science and Engineering (601226.SH), Guofu Hydrogen Energy (02582), Sanhuan Group (300408.SZ), etc.

Green alcohol: Domestic and foreign hydrogen energy policies resonate to open up demand, and green alcohol producers that are the first to start production and guarantee sales channels are competitive.

Hydrogen production equipment: The industry has achieved significant clean-up, and the optimization of the competitive landscape will bring opportunities for greater concentration, focusing on recommending equipment companies with project experience.

Fuel cell vehicles: With the cost of fuel cell systems falling and the exemption of high-speed toll fees for hydrogen vehicles, etc., the industry entered the eve of an explosion. The competitive landscape has shrunk, and leading fuel cell companies have all gone public. It is the sector with the longest refinement period and the biggest gap in expectations, and performance and valuation are expected to resonate.

Solid oxide fuel cells: Bloom Energy (BE.US) and its core supply chain, overseas and domestic system providers.

Risk Alerts

Policies fall short of expectations, technology iteration is slow, and actual project implementation progress falls short of expectations.