China Galaxy Securities: The consumer industry needs to pay attention to the “15th Five-Year Plan” and is optimistic about the development of the consumer industry's overseas business in 2026

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that the consumer industry needs to pay attention to the medium- to long-term consumption goals in the “15th Five-Year Plan” and focus on implementing specific policies related to consumption in the short term. I am optimistic about the development of overseas business in the consumer industry in 2026. Service consumption is expected to change markedly in 2026: compared to commodity consumption, they are more optimistic about service consumption improvement expectations. Recently, relevant policies place a marked increase in emphasis on service consumption. In particular, cleaning up unreasonable restrictions in the consumer sector is an effective way to release demand for service consumption, and it is expected to gradually bear fruit.

The main views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

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The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 10 to 11, 2025. The conference proposed adhering to domestic demand leadership and building a strong domestic market. Deeply implement special actions to boost consumption, and formulate and implement plans to increase income for urban and rural residents. Expand the supply of quality goods and services. Optimize the implementation of the “two new” policies. Clean up unreasonable restrictions in the consumer sector and unleash the potential for service consumption.

Vigorously boosting consumption is a major systemic project, and policies are constantly being strengthened

1) The Chinese consumer market is under pressure from insufficient purchasing power due to various reasons. National subsidies are the fastest way to stimulate insufficient demand in the short term. Since July 2024, the consumption policy has been strengthened significantly. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance co-ordinated 150 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds in July to support the trade-in of consumer goods; in 2025, the government will continue to allocate 300 billion yuan to support the trade-in of consumer goods. From the second half of 2024 to 2025, there was some improvement due to state subsidy incentives, but it is currently facing declining pressure from state subsidies. In October 2025, the total volume of social zero was +2.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was -0.1 pct month-on-month. The Central Economic Work Conference affirmed the role of the trade-in subsidy policy and mentioned optimizing the implementation of the “two new” policies. The bank anticipates that the trade-in subsidy policy will be further optimized in 2026. It is expected that the intensity of the categories already receiving the subsidy will decrease, and it is also expected that new subsidy categories will be introduced.

2) In December 2024, the Central Economic Work Conference made vigorously boosting consumption a priority in economic work in 2025. Since then, various policies have continued to focus on boosting consumption. In March 2025, the “Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption” deployed 30 key tasks in 8 major areas; in April 2025, the State Administration of Taxation comprehensively promoted “buy and refund” tax rebates for overseas travelers when shopping and leaving the country; in September 2025, the “Opinions on Unleashing the Potential of Sports Consumption and Further Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Sports Industry” focused on stimulating demand for sports consumption. 3) In October 2025, the consumer industry was placed at a strategic level in the 15th Five-Year Plan proposal, which proposed “vigorously boosting consumption, enhancing consumer consumption capacity, and expanding the supply of high-quality consumer goods and services”. “The consumer consumption rate has increased markedly, and the driving force of domestic demand in driving economic growth continues to increase.” On November 6, the department issued the “Implementation Plan on Enhancing the Adaptability between Supply and Demand of Consumer Goods and Further Promoting Consumption”. It is mentioned that by 2027, the consumer goods supply structure will be clearly optimized, forming 3 trillion consumption fields and 10 100 billion consumption hotspots to create a number of high-quality consumer goods rich in cultural connotations and world-renowned; by 2030, a high-quality development pattern with healthy interaction between supply and consumption and mutual promotion will basically take shape. The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has steadily increased, and a total of 19 initiatives in five major areas have been proposed.

Investment advice: In terms of individual consumer stocks, focus on high-quality companies with high dividend rates in the process of market style switching (high cut and low), as well as companies with alpha in each segment. A new consumer circuit in the social service sector, recommending Guming and Barley Entertainment. In the food and beverage sector, we recommend pot rings, Dongpeng drinks, and Yasui foods. The agricultural sector recommends Zhongchang Shares. The textile and clothing sector focuses on Anta Sports and Tep International. Technology consumers recommend TCL Electronics H, Hisense Vision, Greenlink Technology, and Stone Technology; Midea Group and Haier Smart Home are recommended for high dividend rates for home appliances. The light industry sector recommended Orekin and followed Yongyi Co., Ltd.

Risk warning: risk of declining national subsidies; risk of insufficient consumer demand; risk of market competition.