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    How Casey’s Earnings Beat, Higher Guidance and Expansion Plans At Casey's General Stores (CASY) Has Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·12/12/2025 02:37:02
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    • In its fiscal second quarter ended October 31, 2025, Casey's General Stores reported sales of US$4,506.08 million and net income of US$206.34 million, alongside updated fiscal 2026 guidance calling for 3%–4% inside same‑store sales growth and 41%–42% inside margins.
    • The company paired this earnings beat and outlook upgrade with shareholder returns and expansion plans, including a US$0.57 quarterly dividend, completion of a US$167.39 million buyback program, and a commitment to open at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026 as part of roughly US$600 million in capital spending.
    • We’ll now assess how this upgraded EBITDA outlook and planned 80‑plus store openings shape Casey’s longer‑term growth-focused investment narrative.

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    Casey's General Stores Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Casey’s, you have to believe in its rural convenience model, continued store expansion and margin strength from higher‑margin in‑store sales. The upgraded fiscal 2026 EBITDA outlook reinforces that story, while the biggest near term swing factor remains execution on store openings and integration of acquired sites. The main risk is that integration and remodel benefits, particularly at CEFCO locations, take longer or cost more than expected, though this quarter’s results do not materially change that risk profile.

    The guidance update for 3% to 4% inside same‑store sales growth and 41% to 42% inside margins is the most relevant announcement here, because it links directly to the growth catalyst investors are watching: higher profitability from inside sales as Casey’s adds new units and rebrands acquired stores. That outlook, paired with plans to open at least 80 locations in fiscal 2026, keeps the focus firmly on whether the company can translate expansion into sustained, higher quality earnings.

    Yet behind the strong guidance, investors should be aware of the execution risk tied to integrating nearly 200 CEFCO stores and improving their weaker margins...

    Read the full narrative on Casey's General Stores (it's free!)

    Casey's General Stores' narrative projects $19.5 billion revenue and $760.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires 6.0% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $179 million from $581.7 million today.

    Uncover how Casey's General Stores' forecasts yield a $591.86 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    CASY 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    CASY 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Four members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Casey’s fair value anywhere between US$233 and about US$732 per share. Against that wide spread, the upgraded EBITDA and same store sales outlook puts even more weight on how effectively Casey’s executes its planned 80 plus store additions and CEFCO integration over the next year.

    Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Casey's General Stores - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

    Build Your Own Casey's General Stores Narrative

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.