China Galaxy Securities: Domestic excavator sales growth rate +9.1% in November, optimistic that the industry will continue to maintain an upward trend in domestic and foreign sales

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Galaxy Securities released a research report saying that the growth rate of domestic and foreign sales of excavators in November increased month-on-month compared to October, and the upward trend of internal and external demand resonance in the industry is clear. The recovery trend in the non-excavation sector, which is driven by wind power and hydropower, continued in October; overseas, on the one hand, demand from Europe and the US recovered, while demand for mining machinery in Australia, Africa and Latin America remained strong. On the other hand, domestic brand exports accounted for 19.2% of global demand (excluding China) in '24, and there is still plenty of room for improvement. The bank is optimistic that China's construction machinery industry will continue to maintain a good trend of upward domestic and foreign sales.

The main views of China Galaxy Securities are as follows:

Domestic and foreign sales of excavators increased by +9.11%/+18.8% respectively in November

According to the Association, (1) excavators: 2,027 excavators of various types were sold in November, an increase of 13.9% over the previous year. Its sales volume in China was 9842 units, up 9.11% year on year; export volume was 10,185 units, up 18.8% year on year. (2) Loaders: In November, 11,419 loaders of various types were sold, an increase of 32.1% over the previous year. Its sales volume in China was 5,671 units, up 29.4% year on year; export volume was 5,748 units, up 34.8% year on year. The electrification rate in November was 25.7%, +0.34pct. The cumulative electrification rate in January-November was about 23.35%, an increase of 0.26pct over January-October.

Other products: Domestic sales of automobiles and crawler cranes continued to grow rapidly in October

Domestic and foreign sales of forklifts have maintained positive double-digit growth; poor exports of lift work platforms have dragged down the overall sales growth rate. Association data shows that October sales growth rate: overall truck crane +15% %/domestic sales +41.7% /export -4.47%; crawler crane overall +71.4% /export +79.7%; truck mounted crane overall +10.2% /domestic sales +2.4% /export +59.2%; tower crane overall -6.8% /domestic sales -16.7% /export +14%; overall forklift truck +15.9% /domestic sales +16.2% /export +15.4%; overall lift platform -38.8% /domestic sales 8% /export- 36.3%

The number of domestic construction hours in November was still weak year-on-year

The number of hours Komatsu started overseas construction in October: North America and Indonesia declined year on year, while Europe and Japan picked up year over year. According to Association data, the average monthly working time of major construction machinery products in November was 84.2 hours, down 13% year on year, up 4.08% month on month; the monthly operating rate of major products was 56.5%, down 12.1 percentage points year on year, up 1.5 percentage points from month to month. According to Komatsu's official website, the number of hours Komatsu excavators started in North America, Europe, Japan, and Indonesia in October 2025 was 72.9h, 80.9h, 48.2h, and 219.3h, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.9%, +2.1%, +4.5%, and -0.3%, respectively.

Excavator exports in January-October were 25.9% year-on-year; world-class iron ore Simandou iron ore was put into operation

1) From January to October, China's total excavator exports amounted to US$8.52 billion, an increase of 25.9% over the previous year. The Belgian, Philippine, and Malian markets declined year-on-year during the month, while the Indonesian, Russian, and Guinean markets grew cumulatively during the month. Among them, Russia's monthly growth rate reached three digits, and the Saudi and Brazilian markets all declined year-on-year in the same month. 2) The world-class iron ore Simandou iron ore was put into operation. After full production, iron ore exports can reach up to 120 million tons per year. 3) On November 19, the Sany South Africa Industrial Park was completed, which is expected to produce 1,000 excavators per year.

Risk warning: the risk that the macroeconomy falls short of expectations, the risk that the degree of policy progress falls short of expectations, the risk of increased industry competition, the risk of export trade disputes, and the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.