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    How Investors May Respond To Eli Lilly (LLY) Doubling Down On Manufacturing And Oncology Beyond Obesity

    Simply Wall St·12/11/2025 01:27:48
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    • Eli Lilly and Company recently announced plans to invest more than US$6.00 billion in a new Huntsville, Alabama manufacturing site to produce small-molecule and peptide medicines, including the oral GLP-1 orforglipron, alongside releasing Phase 3 data showing its BTK inhibitor Jaypirca cut the risk of CLL/SLL disease progression or death substantially versus chemoimmunotherapy.
    • Together, the large-scale U.S. manufacturing build-out and strong late-stage oncology results highlight how Lilly is reinforcing both its production base and its pipeline beyond obesity and diabetes.
    • We’ll now examine how Lilly’s multi-billion-dollar Alabama investment, aimed at scaling orforglipron production, may reshape its broader investment narrative.

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    Eli Lilly Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Eli Lilly, you need to believe incretin-driven obesity and diabetes treatments remain the core earnings engine, while new franchises like oncology and Alzheimer’s add depth over time. The Alabama API build-out and Jaypirca data both support that diversification, but they do little to reduce near term concentration risk in a handful of GLP 1 products or ongoing pricing and reimbursement pressure.

    Among recent announcements, the US$6.0 billion Huntsville facility is the clearest complement to this story, because it is explicitly tied to scaling orforglipron, Lilly’s first oral GLP 1. For investors focused on the next few years, this speaks directly to supply resilience and future capacity for obesity treatments, even as competition in oral GLP 1s and payer resistance to broad reimbursement continue to build.

    Yet while growth looks compelling, investors should be aware that payer resistance to broad obesity coverage could still...

    Read the full narrative on Eli Lilly (it's free!)

    Eli Lilly's narrative projects $89.1 billion revenue and $34.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 18.7% yearly revenue growth and a $20.4 billion earnings increase from $13.8 billion today.

    Uncover how Eli Lilly's forecasts yield a $1024 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    LLY 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    LLY 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Thirty two members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Eli Lilly’s fair value anywhere from US$650 to about US$1,274 per share, highlighting very different expectations. Against that backdrop, reliance on a small group of blockbuster GLP 1 drugs and emerging oral competitors makes it especially important to compare several of these viewpoints before forming a view on the company’s longer term performance.

    Explore 32 other fair value estimates on Eli Lilly - why the stock might be worth as much as 28% more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Eli Lilly Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.