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    How Investors Are Reacting To Nexi (BIT:NEXI) Losing Its Place In Key S&P Global Indices

    Simply Wall St·12/10/2025 12:17:26
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    • In late November 2025, Nexi S.p.A. was removed from several major S&P indices, including the S&P Global 1200, S&P International 700, and S&P Europe 350 and its financials sub-indices, reflecting a reclassification of its role in global benchmarks.
    • This broad index exit can change who holds Nexi’s shares, as index-tracking funds adjust their portfolios and active investors reassess its profile.
    • We’ll now examine how Nexi’s broad removal from key S&P indices may influence its investment narrative and future margin-focused thesis.

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    Nexi Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Nexi today, I think you need to believe that its scale in European digital payments and ongoing shift from cash can offset contract losses and pricing pressure with banks. The broad S&P index removals mainly affect who holds the shares rather than the business itself, so they do not materially change the near term focus on stabilizing Italian bank volumes or the key risk of further revenue and margin pressure from renegotiations.

    In my view, the most relevant recent announcement here is Nexi’s confirmation of 2025 guidance for low to mid single digit net revenue growth, despite contract headwinds and index removal. That guidance keeps the spotlight on execution of its integration and cost synergy plans, which remain central to the margin focused thesis and to whether earnings growth can offset the structural risk from lost or repriced bank distribution agreements.

    Yet behind that guidance, one issue investors really need to be aware of is the ongoing loss and repricing of key Italian bank contracts, which...

    Read the full narrative on Nexi (it's free!)

    Nexi's narrative projects €4.1 billion revenue and €813.9 million earnings by 2028. This implies a 13.7% yearly revenue decline but an increase of about €509 million in earnings from €304.8 million today.

    Uncover how Nexi's forecasts yield a €5.72 fair value, a 42% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    BIT:NEXI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    BIT:NEXI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Six members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate Nexi’s fair value between €3.85 and €8.75, reflecting very wide dispersion in expectations. Set against ongoing pressure from lost Italian bank distribution contracts, this spread underlines why it can pay to compare several viewpoints before forming a view on Nexi’s prospects.

    Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Nexi - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Build Your Own Nexi Narrative

    Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

    • A great starting point for your Nexi research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free Nexi research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Nexi's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.