IREN (NasdaqGS:IREN) Valuation After Major Convertible Notes, Equity Raises and AI Data Center Expansion Plans

IREN (NasdaqGS:IREN) just pushed through a multi billion dollar mix of convertible notes and new equity, a move that hit the stock but is central to funding its AI and data center pivot.

See our latest analysis for IREN.

Those hefty offerings landed on a stock that has already been on a wild ride, with a 30 day share price return of minus 25.71% but a 90 day share price return of 53.49%, and a three year total shareholder return above 3,100%. This suggests long term momentum is still very much intact even as short term sentiment digests dilution and funding risk.

Given how quickly AI infrastructure names can re rate, it is worth seeing which other high growth tech and AI stories are building real fundamentals through high growth tech and AI stocks.

With IREN now trading about 23% below the average analyst price target despite a $9.7 billion Microsoft deal and rapid earnings growth, is this post-deal slide an entry point, or is future AI upside already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 51.1% Undervalued

BlackGoat’s narrative pegs IREN’s fair value at $94.84, roughly double the last close, framing the recent pullback as a potential disconnect.

A successful upgrade to 30 EH/s by year end would place IREN among industry leaders like RIOT, MARA, and CLSK, who are also planning to expand towards a staggering 70 EH/s. However, the expansion to 30 EH/s appears to be only partially funded, raising concerns about potential further dilution in 2024, which I will monitor closely.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a high growth formula of aggressive expansion, rising margins and a premium future earnings multiple all stack up into that bold fair value? Click through to unpack the exact revenue ramp, profitability shift and long term earnings trajectory BlackGoat believes can justify such a steep upside from today’s price.

Result: Fair Value of $94.84 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained Bitcoin weakness or execution stumbles on the Microsoft buildout could quickly compress margins and force fresh dilution into an already volatile setup.

Find out about the key risks to this IREN narrative.

Build Your Own IREN Narrative

If you are not fully aligned with this view or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can quickly build your own take in under three minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your IREN research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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