Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX): Reassessing Valuation After a Recent 19% Share Price Slide

Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX) has quietly slid about 19% over the past 3 months, putting the Hawaii focused REIT back on value investors’ radar as they weigh its income profile against relatively softer growth.

See our latest analysis for Alexander & Baldwin.

That recent slide sits against a longer history where the 1 year total shareholder return is negative, even though the 5 year total shareholder return is still positive. This suggests momentum has cooled as investors reassess growth and income trade offs at a $15.14 share price.

If ALEX’s reset has you thinking more broadly about where to put new money to work, it might be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential fresh ideas.

With the share price lagging recent years’ gains and analysts still seeing upside to intrinsic value, investors are left with a key question: is Alexander & Baldwin now trading below its true worth, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 28.8% Undervalued

With the latest close at $15.14 and the most followed fair value sitting materially higher, the current gap hinges on some punchy long term assumptions.

Hawaii's persistent population growth, urbanization, and tight land-use restrictions continue to drive high occupancy (Q2 portfolio occupancy ~95.8%) and steady rental growth, creating a durable competitive advantage as demand outpaces supply, supporting ongoing revenue and net operating income (NOI) growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a shrinking top line, thinner margins, and a far richer future earnings multiple can still point to upside? The full narrative unpacks the math behind that jump in implied value and the trade off between slower growth, steady cash flows, and a premium multiple that usually belongs to faster growing sectors.

Result: Fair Value of $21.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this story could easily change if Hawaii tourism weakens or redevelopment costs keep climbing, which would pressure occupancy, margins, and ultimately investor confidence.

Find out about the key risks to this Alexander & Baldwin narrative.

Build Your Own Alexander & Baldwin Narrative

If you see the story differently or would rather lean on your own due diligence, you can quickly build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Alexander & Baldwin research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Before you move on, lock in a few fresh angles for your watchlist by using targeted screeners that surface opportunities most investors overlook.

• Capitalize on mispriced opportunities by using these 909 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that filter for companies trading below their estimated cash flow value.
• Tap into the next wave of innovation with these 27 AI penny stocks capturing businesses building real-world products on artificial intelligence.
• Strengthen your income stream through these 15 dividend stocks with yields > 3% focused on companies offering yields above 3 percent with room for sustainable payouts.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com