GF Securities: The new global infrastructure cycle sets sail and the copper price center gradually rises

The Zhitong Finance App learned that GF Securities released a research report stating that copper is widely used in the fields of electricity, machinery manufacturing, construction industry, transportation, etc. The Asia-Pacific region continues to develop, and emerging economies such as new energy and computing power are growing rapidly, driving long-term growth in global electricity demand. Demand for copper was not weak during the 2025 off-season, and the price center gradually increased, and resilience exceeded expectations. The bank expects a tight balance between copper supply and demand in 2025-2027, and the upward direction of copper prices will not change.

The main views of GF Securities are as follows:

Copper demand is promising. From an industry perspective, new energy vehicles, AI industries, and power grids will contribute to increased demand

(1) New energy vehicles: The degree of electrification of automobiles has increased, and new energy vehicles have higher copper consumption. It is estimated that the copper consumption CAGR will reach 14% from 2025 to 2030.

(2) Demand for AI training and services continues to grow, and demand for copper in data centers is increasing. It is estimated that 2.06 million tons of copper will be added from 2025 to 2030.

(3) Power infrastructure cycle: The old power grid system is updated, and AI is superimposed to promote the construction of electricity resources. Demand for copper for electricity will grow steadily over a long period of time.

China: Stabilizing domestic demand+the development of new quality productivity will drive copper demand growth.

US: The renewal and expansion of power grids is the cornerstone of supporting the return of manufacturing and AI development. The bank expects US copper demand to pick up in the future.

EU: The share of new energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind power will increase. Combined with post-war reconstruction between Russia and Ukraine, the increase in copper demand.

Other countries and regions: Investments in India and Southeast Asia will drive the increase in copper demand.

No fear of recent worries: Short-term expectations of tariff shocks have eased, and new infrastructure supports the resilience of copper demand

Short-term expectations of tariff shocks will ease after May 2025. The bank is optimistic about copper demand, and it is likely that it will continue to grow in the long run. The reason is:

(1) Energy demand establishes the certainty of copper demand. New energy-related infrastructure is also an important gripper to hedge against the risk of economic downturn, and copper demand is resilient. More than 50% of the demand for copper terminals comes from energy industries such as power grids. The downstream capital is strong, the project scale investment is large, and the construction cycle is long. Under the catalyst of new energy vehicles, AI data centers, etc., power grid construction and renewal have strategic development significance and also meet people's livelihood needs. Once construction and renewal begins, it will not stop easily.

(2) Anti-globalization has weakened the free flow of copper, supply and demand pay more attention to regionality, compounded by unstable supply chains, and challenges in regional self-sufficiency. In addition, the short-term rate of aluminum to copper is limited by technology, market and standards, and the impact on overall copper demand is limited.

Risk Alerts

Global macroeconomic fluctuations have exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of copper demand is under pressure. Progress in replacing aluminum with copper has exceeded expectations. Demand for power grids and new energy vehicles fell short of expectations.