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華爾街日報What Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's (NSE:HAL) P/E Is Not Telling You
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's (NSE:HAL) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 33.9x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 25x and even P/E's below 14x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
Hindustan Aeronautics could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for Hindustan Aeronautics
How Is Hindustan Aeronautics' Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Hindustan Aeronautics would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. However, a few strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 44% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 11% per year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 20% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.
In light of this, it's alarming that Hindustan Aeronautics' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Key Takeaway
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Hindustan Aeronautics currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Hindustan Aeronautics, and understanding should be part of your investment process.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.