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    Oracle (ORCL): Revisiting Valuation as AI Cloud Backlog, OpenAI Deal and New Coverage Drive Momentum

    Simply Wall St·12/08/2025 22:15:52
    語音播報

    Oracle (ORCL) has been pulled back into the spotlight as investors weigh its swelling AI cloud backlog, its massive OpenAI partnership, and fresh multi cloud deals just days before a closely watched earnings report.

    See our latest analysis for Oracle.

    After a sharp pullback from its AI hype peak, Oracle’s recent 7 day share price return of 8.28 percent and year to date share price gain of 31.05 percent suggest momentum is cautiously rebuilding as investors reassess its AI backlog, OpenAI deal, and multi cloud wins against a three year total shareholder return of 177.82 percent.

    If Oracle’s AI story has you thinking bigger about the space, this could be a good moment to explore other high growth tech and AI names through high growth tech and AI stocks.

    With the stock still trading at a steep discount to Wall Street price targets despite a towering AI backlog and OpenAI deal, is Oracle quietly undervalued here, or is the market already pricing in that future growth?

    Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 44.2% Undervalued

    With Oracle last closing at $217.58 against a narrative fair value of $389.81, the story frames today’s price as a steep discount and leans on aggressive long term AI growth to justify it.

    The story of Oracle’s transformation is a narrative of strategic repositioning that has culminated in the company emerging as an indispensable infrastructure partner for the world’s most demanding Artificial Intelligence (AI) workloads. This strategic shift, defined by massive infrastructure investment, a landmark partnership with OpenAI, and the rise of colossal superclusters, has driven an unprecedented surge in its contract backlog, fundamentally reshaping Oracle’s long term growth trajectory and competitive landscape.

    Read the complete narrative.

    According to TickerTickle, the engine behind that bold upside view is breakneck revenue expansion, rising margins, and a future earnings multiple usually reserved for elite compounders. If you are curious which precise growth and profitability assumptions support a nearly doubled price tag, read the complete narrative and unpack the full valuation playbook.

    Result: Fair Value of $389.81 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, sustained supply bottlenecks or a sharp reset in AI demand could expose execution gaps and quickly deflate the hypergrowth assumptions behind this bullish case.

    Find out about the key risks to this Oracle narrative.

    Build Your Own Oracle Narrative

    If you see the story differently or want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom Oracle narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Oracle research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.