Affiliated Managers Group (AMG): Evaluating Valuation After Strong Q3 Earnings Beat and Raised Buyback Guidance

Affiliated Managers Group (AMG) just cleared a high bar in its third quarter, topping earnings forecasts while leaning harder into private markets and liquid alternatives that now drive most of its EBITDA.

See our latest analysis for Affiliated Managers Group.

The market seems to be rewarding that shift, with the share price now at $273.19 and a strong 46.17% year to date share price return. The 5 year total shareholder return of 181.47% signals that momentum has been building rather than fading.

If AMG’s run has you thinking about what else is working in this market, it could be a good time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other promising ideas.

Yet with AMG trading close to analyst targets after a powerful multi‑year rerating, investors now face the key question: Is there still upside left for new buyers, or has the market already priced in the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.2% Undervalued

With Affiliated Managers Group closing at $273.19 versus a narrative fair value of $307.71, the implied upside rests on a very specific earnings and margin roadmap.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $594.9 million (and earnings per share of $24.03) by about September 2028, up from $442.4 million today.

In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 12.8x on those 2028 earnings, down from 14.9x today.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how modest top line growth, rising margins, shrinking share count and a lower future multiple can still add up to double digit upside? The narrative joins those dots.

Result: Fair Value of $307.71 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained fee pressure in alternatives or underperformance at key affiliates like Pantheon and AQR could quickly undermine the bullish valuation case.

Find out about the key risks to this Affiliated Managers Group narrative.

Build Your Own Affiliated Managers Group Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions with your own numbers, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Affiliated Managers Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Before you move on, consider using the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover focused opportunities you might otherwise overlook.

• Scan these 3579 penny stocks with strong financials that already pair tiny market caps with comparatively solid financial foundations.
• Explore these 26 AI penny stocks with real products, observable adoption, and significant growth potential.
• Search for potential bargains by filtering for these 905 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where current prices may not fully reflect the strength of their underlying cash flows.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com