Newell Brands (NWL) Valuation After Productivity Plan, Job Cuts and Yankee Candle Store Closures

Newell Brands (NWL) is back in the spotlight after rolling out a global productivity plan that cuts roughly 900 office jobs and closes about 20 Yankee Candle stores, while steering fourth quarter sales toward the low end of guidance.

See our latest analysis for Newell Brands.

The restructuring headlines come after a bruising stretch, with the 1 year total shareholder return down about 61% and the 5 year total shareholder return near 78% lower, even though the 1 month share price return has recently turned sharply positive. This may hint at improving sentiment rather than a full blown turnaround.

If this kind of early stage turnaround story has you reassessing your watchlist, it might be worth scouting fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to uncover other potentially mispriced ideas.

With the stock down heavily over five years but trading at a steep discount to some analyst targets, the key question now is whether Newell is a deep value turnaround or if the market already anticipates any future recovery.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 28.7% Undervalued

With Newell Brands last closing at $3.69 against a narrative fair value of $5.18, followers see meaningful upside if the turnaround blueprint plays out.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $482.4 million (and earnings per share of $1.1) by about September 2028, up from $-243.0 million today. In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 8.6x on those 2028 earnings, up from -10.8x today.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of margin rebuild and revenue acceleration it takes to support that earnings leap and future multiple reset? The full narrative unpacks the exact profit trajectory, the assumed growth tempo across segments, and how a single valuation anchor ties it all together.

Result: Fair Value of $5.18 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent core sales weakness or a sharp consumer pullback in discretionary spending could quickly derail Newell’s margin rebuild and valuation re rating hopes.

Find out about the key risks to this Newell Brands narrative.

Build Your Own Newell Brands Narrative

If you want to stress test these assumptions yourself or dig into the numbers from a different angle, you can build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Newell Brands research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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