UBS anticipates a supply shortage in the lithium market starting in 2026 and has raised its spodumene price forecast. UBS analysts raised the lithium demand forecast up to 2030 by about 10%; raised the 2026 spodumene price estimate by 64%, the 2027 price estimate by 148%, and 2028 by 94%. UBS said the price increase will prompt a supply-side response, but this will take time; battery energy storage systems are driving demand growth.

UBS anticipates a supply shortage in the lithium market starting in 2026 and has raised its spodumene price forecast. UBS analysts raised the lithium demand forecast up to 2030 by about 10%; raised the 2026 spodumene price estimate by 64%, the 2027 price estimate by 148%, and 2028 by 94%. UBS said the price increase will prompt a supply-side response, but this will take time; battery energy storage systems are driving demand growth.