Goldman Sachs warns that the $11,000 mark of copper will be difficult to stabilize, and there will be a shortage of supply far beyond 2029

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs Group has injected a hint of caution into the current optimistic discussions surrounding the future of copper. The bank said that the surge in copper prices above $11,000 per ton will be short-lived as there is still sufficient global supply to meet demand.

Analysts, including Aurelia Waltham, wrote in a report: “Most of the recent rise in copper prices is based on expectations of future market tension rather than current fundamentals. We don't expect the current trend above $11,000 to continue.”

Copper prices soared to a record level of $11,540 per ton on Wednesday due to concerns that copper would be urgently shipped to the US before tariffs were imposed on the US, causing global supply constraints. Trading company Mercer Energy Group's warning last week about an “extreme” misalignment in supply further intensified this trading sentiment in the market.

Although Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of next year and indicated that the US tariff deal would support the price, the bank pointed out that by increasing regional premiums and narrowing the LME period gap, it is possible to avoid “extremely low” inventories outside the US. Goldman Sachs expects this year's demand to be short of about 500,000 tons compared to supply, and the copper shortage will not occur until 2029.

The analyst wrote: “Although we forecast a surplus of 160,000 tons in 2026 to be much smaller, bringing the market closer to balance, this means we don't expect the global copper market to run short anytime soon.” They said copper prices will be “limited” to the $10,000 to $11,000 per ton range in 2026.

LME copper prices rose slightly on Thursday. As of press release, the price of LME copper fell slightly by 0.01% to $11,479 per ton, and the increase has increased to 31% since this year. Mining stocks in the Asia-Pacific region followed the rise in copper prices, and the Australian-listed Capstone Copper rose as much as 8.2%, etc.

Li Xuezhi, director of Chaos Tiancheng Research Institute, said, “This round of rise has only just begun, and we are still bullish on copper prices.” He pointed out that the massive metal pick-up at the LME warehouse on Wednesday “heightened immediate concerns in the market about tight supply”.

Despite this, copper prices have long been the subject of various bold predictions, and these predictions often do not match reality. Despite a series of shutdowns at major mines until 2026 putting pressure on supply, global demand for copper has also recently slowed despite obvious highlights such as green technology.

As a key market for copper, demand in the Chinese market has declined sharply in recent months. Goldman Sachs said it is expected that in the fourth quarter of this year, China's copper consumption will drop nearly 8% year on year. The bank is expected to grow 2.8% next year.