UBP says oil, long-term yields drive equity sentiment after Fed lifts rates to 4%

• Union Bancaire Privée flagged oil prices and long-term yields as the key near-term swing factors for equities and rates.
• The Fed raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16, framing the move as insurance against energy-driven inflation.
• FOMC dot plot signaled at least one more hike by December, pushing any easing back to 2028.
• 10-year Treasury yields ended near 5.00%, with UBP pointing to oil as the main driver of short-term rate moves.
• Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9% for the week; UBP expects volatility to be short-lived if oil and yields retreat.

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