Earnings Beat: Elm Company Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
It's been a good week for Elm Company (TADAWUL:7203) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 6.7% to ر.س599. Revenues were ر.س2.8b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at ر.س9.98, an impressive 32% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Elm's ten analysts is for revenues of ر.س12.5b in 2027. This would reflect a solid 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 11% to ر.س34.06. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ر.س12.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س33.74 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Elm
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of ر.س742, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Elm at ر.س1,154 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ر.س610. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Elm's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Elm's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Elm's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Elm going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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