Nvidia Reports Nov. 17. History Says What Its Stock Usually Does Next.
Key Points
Nvidia's stock fell the day after six of its past 10 earnings reports.
Revenue landed above the top of management's own forecast range in all 10 of these reports.
After five of the six drops, shares were up by the next report.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) will report results for the three months ended Oct. 25 (its fiscal third quarter of 2027) after the close on Tuesday, Nov. 17. As of this writing, shares sit near $205, putting the stock about 14% under its Oct. 6 closing high of $239.24.
Investors hoping a strong report can push the stock back toward its record might want to see how the artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant's shares have reacted lately. In all of Nvidia's past 10 reports, going back to May 2024, revenue beat the top of the range management had forecast. But the stock fell the next trading day after six of those.
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Still, I don't think this record is much of a reason to avoid the stock before the report.
Image source: Nvidia.
Six drops in 10 reports
Because Nvidia's reports come out after trading ends for the day, the easiest way to gauge the move is from the report-day close to the next day's close. On that basis, the worst day of the stretch was in February 2025.
The stock dropped around 8.5% after a fiscal fourth-quarter report with revenue up 78% year over year to $39.3 billion. That was almost $2 billion more than the $37.5 billion management had guided for.
The pattern carried into 2026. Nvidia's revenue for its fiscal 2026 fourth quarter was $68.1 billion in February, over the company's $65.0 billion forecast, and shares dropped around 5% the next day. In May, fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue of $81.6 billion beat a $78.0 billion forecast, and the stock dipped around 2%. With the drops after the August and November 2025 reports, that was four straight.
Yet August's report snapped the streak. Revenue for the fiscal second quarter more than doubled, up 106% year over year to $96.2 billion, well above the $91.0 billion outlook. And the stock climbed around 9% the next day.
Over all 10 reports, shares moved about 5% up or down on average.
There's no simple pattern in which way they went, either. The February 2025 drop came with a forecast for Nvidia's gross margin to dip to 70.6% from 73%. But August's report also called for a lower gross margin (74%, down from 75%), and the stock climbed.
Of course, the stock's other big gain in the stretch, around 9% in May 2024, followed the same report in which Nvidia announced a 10-for-1 stock split.
Most drops didn't last
For a long-term shareholder, what came after the first day counts more. Here, Nvidia's record looks far better.
After five of the six drops, shares were back above their report-day close by the time Nvidia next reported, around three months later. After the February 2026 fall, for example, the stock rose about 21% from its post-report close by the May 20 report.
The only exception was May 2026. Shares dipped around 2% the day after the report and were about 6% under their report-day close by the time the August report arrived.
The record can go the other way, too. All of the 9% rise after August's report has since faded. As of this writing, shares are around 10% below where they closed the day after that report.
Time to buy before Nov. 17?
Nvidia is guiding for fiscal third-quarter revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. If it hits the midpoint, revenue would climb around 89% from the $57.0 billion Nvidia pulled in for the same quarter last year.
True, growth at that rate would be a slowdown from the 106% Nvidia posted in its fiscal second quarter. And shares could easily fall again on Nov. 18, the first trading day after the report. Going by the latest 10 reports, a drop is arguably a bit more likely than a rise.
But the stock's valuation already looks reasonable.
Analysts' consensus is for around $15.80 in earnings per share for fiscal 2028, which ends in January 2028. Using that figure, the stock trades at around 14 times earnings. That's a modest price for a company whose revenue more than doubled year over year in its latest quarter.
So, does history say to wait for the report before buying? I don't think so. The day after has tilted negative. But most of those drops didn't last, and Nvidia has kept topping its own revenue forecasts. I'd consider buying shares before Nov. 17 rather than guessing the next day's move.
Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.