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    Nomura Research Institute (TSE:4307) Lifts Outlook And Dividend As Fair Value Stays In Focus

    Simply Wall St·11/01/2026 21:32:27
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    Why this earnings and dividend reset matters for Nomura Research Institute

    Nomura Research Institute (TSE:4307) has just combined three big signals for shareholders: fresh half year results, a higher full year earnings outlook, and an increased dividend plan are now on the table.

    Sales for the six months to 30 September 2026 came in at ¥429,906 million, with net income at ¥60,014 million. Basic and diluted earnings per share from continuing operations were ¥106.61, compared with ¥93.53 a year earlier.

    Following that update, management lifted full year guidance. The group now expects revenue of ¥870,000 million, operating profit of ¥180,000 million, profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥123,000 million, and basic EPS of ¥218.50.

    The earlier forecast had pointed to revenue of ¥850,000 million, operating profit of ¥175,000 million, profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥119,000 million, and basic EPS of ¥211.39. Management links the revision to strong demand for IT projects in system modernization within an AI environment and digital security work.

    The board also raised its view on shareholder payouts. For the fiscal year ending 31 March 2027, the year end dividend is now guided at ¥46.00 per share, compared with previous guidance of ¥42.00 per share.

    Alongside that policy, Nomura Research Institute aims to keep stable dividends while retaining enough earnings to fund medium and long term business development. The stated target consolidated dividend payout ratio is 40%, subject to operating revenue and cash flow conditions.

    On the way to that year end distribution, the second quarter dividend was ¥42.00 per share, compared with ¥35.00 per share a year earlier. Dividend payments are scheduled to begin on 30 November 2026.

    Recent trading has picked up speed for Nomura Research Institute. The share price is at ¥6,232 after a 24.37% 1 month share price return and a 32.99% 3 month share price return, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 41.32% points to more measured long run progress.

    The sharp move over the past quarter arrived alongside the October earnings release, the upgraded full year guidance and the higher dividend plan. Together, these factors suggest that investors are reassessing both growth potential and income prospects rather than reacting to a single headline.

    Capitalize on the renewed momentum in Nomura Research Institute by scanning a curated field of resilient tech-focused businesses with 23 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

    The question now is whether Nomura Research Institute’s jump reflects a healthier, higher earning business, or a swing in sentiment that pushed the stock ahead of its fundamentals.

    Most Popular Narrative: 4.3% Overvalued

    Nomura Research Institute last closed at ¥6,232, while the most followed narrative anchors fair value at ¥5,974 based on a 7.59% discount rate and detailed long term forecasts.

    The current valuation, which this narrative views as fairly valued and bullish, implies the share price already reflects ongoing capital returns and sensitivity to swings in global IT and AI spending sentiment.

    See why 0 investors see Nomura Research Institute as 4% overvalued.

    Result: Fair Value of ¥5,974 (OVERVALUED)

    Still, the narrative around Nomura Research Institute could change if enterprise IT budgets tilt more toward AI hardware or if Japanese tech sentiment deteriorates again.

    Find out about the key risks to this Nomura Research Institute narrative.

    Next Steps

    Mixed messages in the recent Nomura Research Institute story, with momentum strong but valuation questions open, make this a moment to move quickly, pull up the underlying numbers yourself, and weigh both sides using the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs.

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    If Nomura Research Institute has you rethinking your portfolio, this is the moment to widen your search and line up the next wave of potential ideas.