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    Earnings Jump Might Change The Case For Investing In Securitas Stock (OM:SECU B)

    Simply Wall St·11/01/2026 14:30:26
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    • Securitas reported third quarter 2026 results with sales of SEK 38,566 million and net income of SEK 2,109 million, alongside basic EPS from continuing operations of SEK 3.68.
    • Profitability strengthened, as nine month 2026 net income of SEK 5,365 million and EPS of SEK 9.36 came alongside lower sales than the prior year period.
    • This article reviews how Securitas' investment narrative is influenced by sharply higher quarterly net income and earnings per share.

    Scan how Securitas' earnings jump compares with other companies showing strong profitability signals by reviewing the hand picked 204 high quality undervalued stocks.

    Securitas Investment Narrative Recap

    To hold Securitas stock, you need to believe the shift toward technology-led, higher margin security solutions can support steadier earnings, even if traditional guarding or aviation security volumes soften. The third quarter jump in net income to SEK 2,109 million, alongside flat sales, reinforces that the story currently leans more on efficiency and mix than on headline growth.

    That profitability lift could support confidence in near term catalysts such as further margin improvement and cash generation, especially after past optimization work in Europe and Ibero America. The key near term risk remains contract concentration and potential exits in sensitive areas such as aviation services, which could bring restructuring costs and weaker operating leverage if demand softens again.

    The latest earnings release for the third quarter of 2026 is the clearest operational signal. Securitas reported SEK 38,566 million in revenue and SEK 3.68 in basic EPS from continuing operations, compared with SEK 1.09 a year earlier. For the first nine months, net income reached SEK 5,365 million on SEK 112,620 million of sales, with EPS of SEK 9.36.

    Those figures sit alongside an earlier narrative built on recurring monthly revenue above SEK 1b in Technology and Solutions, a 7.6% adjusted operating margin in Q2 2026, and portfolio pruning of low margin contracts. The earnings step up now tests whether higher quality contracts and digital programs can keep offsetting risks from contract exits, demand swings in aviation security, and the firm’s still meaningful debt load.

    Securitas Earnings Assumptions and Analyst Targets

    Securitas' long term story in the analyst models is built around modest top line expansion and a firmer profit base by 2029 rather than a sudden step change. Revenue is assumed to grow by 3.5% per year over the next three years, with profit margins moving from 3.7% today to 5.3% over that period, which implies more of each krona of sales turning into earnings even without rapid volume gains.

    Consensus forecasts point to earnings today of SEK 5.6b and projected net profit of SEK 8.9b by 2029, with some analysts as low as SEK 8.0b. That takes the current P/E of 16.1x and asks investors to accept a 2029 multiple of 12.7x, which is below the GB Commercial Services sector level of 20.8x quoted in the report and assumes no material change in the share count. The discount rate used in this framework is 5.74%, which sets the hurdle for how those future cash flows are brought back to today.

    On these same inputs the valuation work in the report ties the Securitas share price to a consensus target of SEK 168.21, compared with a recent market price of SEK 157.4. Analyst views span a relatively wide range, from SEK 128.0 at the low end to SEK 210.0 at the top, reflecting different views on how far margins and earnings can move. To line up with the central case you would need to expect 2029 revenue of SEK 167.3b, earnings of SEK 8.9b, and a 12.7x P/E, using a 5.7% discount rate.

    Securitas is treated as broadly fairly priced in that consensus, with the target only 6.4% above the cited spot price. The bigger swing factor for you as a shareholder is whether you agree with the assumed margin lift and technology driven mix shift. If you think recurring technology and solutions income, portfolio pruning, and balance sheet flexibility can sustain that earnings path, the current valuation framework may make sense. If you are more cautious on contract churn in areas like aviation security, or on how quickly higher margin segments can scale, then the lower end of the earnings and price target range may feel more realistic.

    Securitas' narrative projects SEK 167.3b revenue and SEK 8.9b earnings by 2029, which rests on 3.5% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about SEK 3.3b from SEK 5.6b today.

    Uncover why Securitas' fair value indicates an 8% potential upside to its current price that may not last much longer.

    OM:SECU B 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    OM:SECU B 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    One point the more cautious analysts keep circling is contract churn in higher value services. Before this Securitas earnings release, the bearish group was only pencilling in about SEK 163.6b of revenue and SEK 8.0b of earnings by 2029. That is a much more guarded story, and the latest profit jump may push some of those views to shift.

    Explore 2 other Securitas fair value estimates, including one that suggests it could be worth just SEK168.21.

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

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    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Securitas?

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