PHINIA Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Investors in PHINIA Inc. (NYSE:PHIN) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.8% to close at US$62.92 following the release of its third-quarter results. Revenues were US$912m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$1.80 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 16%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the five analysts covering PHINIA are now predicting revenues of US$3.77b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a modest 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 19% to US$6.23. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.77b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.38 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for PHINIA
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$88.40, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PHINIA at US$105 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$69.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that PHINIA's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 3.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.5% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 7.3% annually. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, PHINIA is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on PHINIA. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for PHINIA going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for PHINIA that we have uncovered.
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