Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Just Recorded A 20% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
A week ago, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NCLH) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$2.9b, some 2.3% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$1.07, 20% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' 21 analysts is for revenues of US$10.6b in 2027. This would reflect a reasonable 4.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 29% to US$1.29 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$10.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.34 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
See our latest analysis for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
The consensus price target held steady at US$19.58, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings analyst has a price target of US$26.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 29% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.58, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings that you need to take into consideration.
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