Earnings Miss: Valmet Oyj Missed EPS By 23% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
It's been a good week for Valmet Oyj (HEL:VALMT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 8.7% to €28.86. Revenue of €1.4b surpassed estimates by 2.5%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 23% below expectations at €0.38 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Following last week's earnings report, Valmet Oyj's six analysts are forecasting 2027 revenues to be €5.50b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 34% to €2.07. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €5.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.06 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for Valmet Oyj
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €32.58. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Valmet Oyj analyst has a price target of €36.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €28.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Valmet Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 4.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Valmet Oyj is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €32.58, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Valmet Oyj going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see whether Valmet Oyj is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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