• 简

    • -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%
    -+ 0.00%

    Axfood (OM:AXFO) Earnings Lift The Story But Shares Still Look Fully Valued

    Simply Wall St·10/31/2026 15:42:16
    语音播报

    Axfood (OM:AXFO) just released third quarter and nine month figures, with sales, net income and earnings per share all higher than a year earlier. This has put fresh attention on the Swedish grocery retailer.

    The recent quarterly update has arrived alongside a 13.48% 3 month share price return and a 6.52% 1 month gain, even though the share price is still down 4.30% year to date. Total shareholder return over 5 years sits at 48.88%, which may indicate steady long term compounding with momentum rebuilding in the short term.

    Scan how Axfood’s steady earnings trend compares with other food and retail operators by checking our hand picked 218 resilient stocks with low risk scores showing businesses with relatively resilient profiles.

    Axfood now trades higher after a solid run and a rich history of shareholder returns. Does that recent strength still leave enough upside in the valuation to reward new buyers from here?

    Most Popular Narrative: 3% Overvalued

    Axfood closed at SEK276.10, modestly above the most followed fair value estimate of SEK267.14. This frames the current debate around how much margin strength is already reflected in the share price.

    The company's ongoing investments in supply chain automation and logistics (for example, the fully operational Bålsta robotic warehouse and planned capacity expansion in southern Sweden by 2030) are expected to continue driving operating cost reductions and margin improvements, with efficiency gains gradually increasing towards the upper end of targeted savings, positively impacting net margins and long-term earnings growth.

    See why 26 investors see Axfood as 3% overvalued.

    Result: Fair Value of SEK267.14 (OVERVALUED)

    Still, Axfood faces pressure from fierce Swedish grocery price competition and the execution risk involved in turning City Gross into a consistently profitable banner.

    Find out about the key risks to this Axfood narrative.

    Another View: Axfood Through A Cash Flow Lens

    While analyst targets cluster around a fair value of SEK267.14, our DCF model shows a different perspective. On that framework, Axfood at SEK276.10 appears to offer value, with an estimated future cash flow value of SEK644.28. That gap raises a simple question: which lens do you consider more relevant for long term returns?

    Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

    AXFO Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2026
    AXFO Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2026

    Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Axfood for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 199 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

    Next Steps

    Curious whether Axfood is being viewed too cautiously or with growing optimism after these numbers? Act quickly, review the underlying metrics for yourself, and then weigh those against the 4 key rewards.

    Looking for more Axfood sized investment ideas?

    Once you have weighed Axfood, do not stop there. Use the same disciplined lens across fresh ideas so your watchlist keeps improving with every decision.