Tenable Holdings, Inc. Just Recorded A 155% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
It's been a pretty great week for Tenable Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:TENB) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to US$50.74 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$276m were what the analysts expected, Tenable Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.10 per share, an impressive 155% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Tenable Holdings from 20 analysts is for revenues of US$1.17b in 2027. If met, it would imply a solid 9.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 187% to US$0.43. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.32 in 2027. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a considerable lift to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.
Check out our latest analysis for Tenable Holdings
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 32% to US$47.42. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Tenable Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$60.00 and the most bearish at US$34.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Tenable Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Tenable Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Tenable Holdings following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Tenable Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Tenable Holdings that you need to be mindful of.
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