Is Airbnb (ABNB) Cheap Following Its Amex Travel Partnership?

Airbnb (ABNB) is back in focus after unveiling an exclusive partnership with American Express that pulls more than one million Airbnb listings into the Amex Travel platform for eligible U.S. cardholders.

For context, Airbnb shares trade at US$171.05 after giving back 2.5% on a 7 day share price basis. However, the 30 day share price return of 8.6% and year to date gain of 28.6%, together with a 1 year total shareholder return of 32.5% but a slightly negative 5 year total shareholder return, suggest momentum has picked up recently while the longer history still looks mixed.

Scan how this Airbnb and Amex tie-up compares with other potential travel winners by reviewing our curated list of 21 high quality undiscovered gems in the sector.

Airbnb now trades only slightly below the average analyst target, while a far larger discount appears in some intrinsic value estimates. After the recent run, which reference point looks closer to fair value?

Most Popular Narrative: 5.9% Undervalued

At a last close of $171.05 versus a narrative fair value of $181.84, Airbnb screens modestly undervalued, and the current community thesis leans heavily on product progress flowing into financials.

Airbnb's Q2 was probably the strongest evidence in a while that all the small product changes they''ve been making are actually starting to show up in the numbers. Revenue grew 17% to $3.6 billion, Gross Booking Value grew 16% to $27.2 billion, and Nights and Seats Booked grew 10%. Net income reached $816 million and adjusted EBITDA grew 21% to $1.3 billion, with margins expanding to 35%.

See why 88 investors see Airbnb as 6% undervalued.

According to TickerTickle, this valuation view uses an 8.5% discount rate with assumptions that include 12% annual revenue growth, a 24.5% net margin and a future P/E of 27. The gap between that framework and the current $171.05 share price is relatively narrow, which suggests expectations already bake in meaningful earnings expansion and healthy profitability for Airbnb.

Result: Fair Value of $181.84 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, tighter rules on short term rentals in key regions and the unresolved US$1.3b IRS dispute could quickly weaken confidence in the current Airbnb narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Airbnb narrative.

Another View: Airbnb Looks Expensive On Earnings

A different lens on Airbnb starts with its P/E of 37.5x at a share price of $171.05. That is well above the US Hospitality sector on 20.3x, peers on 30.7x, and even our fair ratio estimate of 29.9x. That gap points to less room for error if growth or margins disappoint from here.

Investors weighing that richer earnings multiple against the community fair value might want to see what the numbers imply in more detail, then judge whether the premium feels justified by Airbnb's quality and track record of profit growth. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

Sentiment on Airbnb is split enough that it pays to check the underlying figures and judge quickly where you land on the story yourself. To weigh those competing signals directly, start with the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Airbnb?

If Airbnb has your attention, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist with a few targeted screeners that surface different kinds of opportunities.

• Target resilience first by checking companies that score well on risk and stability through the 30 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
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