What CMC Markets Holders Got Right Before A 133% Run

CMC Markets did not need a huge bull market to deliver a shock. Investors who held CMC Markets from the start of the year are up 132.8%, including dividends. If you had put money in on 1 January, that outcome would probably look wildly out of step with the regulatory worries and business model doubts on record at the time. What exactly in the early evidence could have justified taking that risk?

The easy part of this move is behind CMC Markets. Zero in on 8 high quality undervalued stocks for companies trading below our estimates.

The Two Futures Investors Had To Price In For CMC Markets

The shares cost £2.99 at the start of the period, and anyone looking at CMC Markets then had to choose between two very different futures that both sounded plausible.

The bullish story pointed to digital adoption and DeFi as a growth engine. Analysts suggested a Fair Value of £3.8, the price that scenario implied if things went right, based on B2B platform expansion and recurring income from nearly 400 institutional partners.

The more cautious view put Fair Value at £2.22. This reflected worries that tighter rules on leveraged trading and rising compliance costs could steadily pressure margins and hold the business back.

What The Results Changed For CMC Markets

The clearest new fact for CMC Markets was the H2 2026 report. Revenue reached £205.11m and net income £38.416m, both above H2 2025. Net margin moved from 16.6% to 18.7%, which leaned toward the optimistic case that the business could support healthier profitability. However, regulatory and competition worries from the cautious view remain unresolved.

The lesson is simple. When a story hangs on stronger recurring earnings power, treat net margin and profit progression as the key checkpoints to test against the original thesis.

What CMC Markets' Run Has Already Priced In

CMC Markets now trades at £6.96, after a 132.8% total return from the start of the year. The selected Narrative places its Fair Value above that level, framed around partnership-driven earnings power rather than a quick trading rebound story.

The pitch leans on B2B, APIs and a future Super App. Any buyer today has to judge whether institutional and white-label partnerships can genuinely support a higher, more recurring profit base.

"The shift at CMC Markets toward a partnership and infrastructure model for banks and neobanks, with revenue now described as driven by B2B and wholesale relationships such as ANZ, Westpac, ASB and Revolut, can create a deeper pool of institutional order flow. This can support more stable fee income and a higher mix of recurring revenue."

One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its higher Fair Value, assumptions and all

Before The Next Story Makes Headlines

What if your next investment idea came before the headlines? Go straight to the companies whose prices and our estimates still disagree. Three places to start, with the names waiting behind the link.

• Company 1 - 18% below our estimate - targets everyday supplement use as gym membership replaces traditional leisure spending.
• Company 2 - 28% below our estimate - leans on a single tech stack and AI tools to process rising platform inflows.
• Company 3 - 21% below our estimate - recruits senior lawyers leaving partnerships for higher fee shares on a dispersed platform.

Those are three of them. See the full list of 9 financially solid companies →

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