Cross-border stablecoin payments usher in new opportunities Bernstein is optimistic about the competitive advantages of Visa (V.US) and Mastercard (MA.US)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that after attending the Money20/20 Fintech Conference in Las Vegas this week, Bernstein released a research report stating that the global payment industry is undergoing important changes. As artificial intelligence (AI) agents gradually enter the commercial transaction scenario and the application of stablecoins in cross-border capital flows becomes more mature, the focus of industry competition is shifting from traditional payment processing capabilities to authentication, transaction trust systems, payment infrastructure and related software services.

Bernstein analyst Harshita Rawat said that unlike the lively discussions surrounding blockchain and AI to completely disrupt financial services in previous years, the topics of this year's conference were more practical, focusing mainly on how to establish uniform standards for AI brokering commercial transactions, and in what actual payment scenarios stablecoins can actually create value.

The bank believes that AI brokering commercial transactions, stablecoin payment infrastructure, and authentication and anti-fraud services will become an important future development direction for the payment industry and may reshape the competitive landscape among payment companies such as Visa (V.US), Mastercard (MA.US), PayPal (PYPL.US), and Adyen.

First, AI agent commercial transactions are moving from the technical feasibility exploration stage to the trust mechanism construction stage.

The so-called AI agent commercial transaction means that the consumer authorizes the AI system to independently complete shopping processes such as product search, selection, order, and payment. As related technology gradually matures, the focus of the market is no longer on whether AI can complete transactions, but whether merchants and payment institutions can confirm the identity of AI agents and whether their transactions are authorized by consumers.

Bernstein pointed out that agency status, transaction authority, consumers' real intentions, identity authentication, fraud prevention, and attribution of responsibility are currently the most discussed issues in the industry.

For merchants, simply confirming that the transaction was initiated by a legal AI agent is not enough; it is also necessary to clarify which consumer the agent represents, what authority it has, and whether the relevant purchasing decisions actually meet the consumer's wishes.

Therefore, in the foreseeable future, manual participation in review or authorization will still be an important part of the AI agent payment system.

At the same time, there are more and more AI agent payment agreements and technical standards introduced by different companies, further increasing the complexity of merchant access.

Bernstein specifically mentioned that Visa and Mastercard are promoting payment token technology for AI agents, but currently some AI shopping products, including Muse and Instinct, do not seem to have adopted proxy tokens launched by the two major bank card networks.

The bank believes that whether Visa and Mastercard can master the AI proxy payment token system will directly affect their competitive position in the future payment ecosystem.

On the other hand, fragmentation of payment agreements may also create opportunities for modern payment service providers such as Adyen. Such enterprises are expected to help merchants reduce the complexity of connecting to AI agent trading systems by integrating different technical standards and payment channels.

In the field of stablecoins, the trend Bernstein observed is more clear: stablecoins are finding application scenarios with real commercial value, but their main growth driver is not the direct use of stablecoins for shopping, but in areas such as cross-border remittance, capital settlement, and corporate payments.

The research report points out that in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia, there are limited channels to obtain US dollars and the cost of cross-border transfers is high, and stablecoins can solve actual capital flow problems.

In particular, in scenarios such as cross-border settlement, remittance, corporate payments, and acquisition of US dollar assets, stablecoins can provide a more efficient way to transfer funds, and are therefore gradually gaining attention from financial institutions and payment service providers.

Bernstein believes that stablecoins are more likely to become the underlying payment infrastructure in the future, rather than directly replacing bank cards or other consumer payment methods. This also means that future important competition in the stablecoin industry will revolve around who can control capital settlement and circulation infrastructure. Currently, companies including BVNK, Bridge, Circle (CRCL.US), Zero Hash, and Coinbase (COIN.US) are all competing for potential growth opportunities in this market.

Notably, although stablecoins are viewed as a technology that may change traditional payment models, Bernstein discovered that their most attractive practical application in the field of consumer payments is instead combined with traditional bank card networks.

According to the research report, stablecoin-related bank card products can be found everywhere at this conference, and most of them use the Visa network. This type of product allows users to hold and use stablecoin funds while completing purchases through existing bank card payment networks. They not only retain the merchant coverage advantages of traditional payment systems, but can also use stablecoins to improve the efficiency of cross-border capital flows.

Bernstein believes that the business model for such products has similar economic characteristics to the traditional bank card business, and may even generate higher profits in some transactions involving foreign exchange. Therefore, the popularity of stablecoins does not necessarily mean that traditional bank card networks will be replaced; on the contrary, they may bring new transaction volume and payment service opportunities to Visa and Mastercard.

In addition to AI agents and stablecoins, authentication and anti-fraud services are also becoming a new focus of competition in the payment industry. Bernstein said that the number of companies providing fraud prevention, identity authentication and security services increased markedly at this year's Money20/20 conference, but the relevant market is still highly fragmented, and many companies are solving similar problems.

With the gradual spread of AI agent commercial transactions, risks such as identity fraud, unauthorized transactions, and automated fraud may become more complex, and payment companies also need to establish a complete trust system covering before, during, and after transactions.

Bernstein believes that Visa and Mastercard currently have cybersecurity services closely integrated with payment transactions, as well as unique transaction data resources and mature customer channels, so they have the foundation for further expansion into the field of authentication and security services.

The bank pointed out that in the future, competition in the payment industry will be less and less like a simple transaction processing business, but more like comprehensive competition around identity, trust, transaction coordination, and software services.

Regarding specific payment companies, Bernstein also made different judgments. On Adyen's side, the bank remains more cautious about its digital payment business facing competition from Checkout.com, but at the same time is more optimistic about the development opportunities of its platform business, especially the potential for cooperation related to AI platforms and ORB. Bernstein anticipates that Adyen may further enhance the platform's service capabilities through small-scale acquisitions in the future.

For PayPal, Bernstein believes that the development of AI-brokered commercial transactions is putting it at a critical turning point. The company needs to re-establish the bilateral network advantage between consumers and merchants in order to regain competitiveness in a new generation of intelligent payment systems.

Furthermore, Bernstein also noticed that OUSD's discussions at this conference were more popular than expected, and that the benefits generated by stablecoin reserve assets and how they are distributed are becoming important business model issues that the industry is concerned about.

In terms of investment ratings, Bernstein maintained “outperforming the market” ratings for Visa, Mastercard, Adyen, Block (XYZ.US), Affirm (AFRM.US), and Toast (TOST.US); maintained “on par with the market” ratings for PayPal, FIS (FIS.US), Fiserv (FISV.US), Global Payments (GPN.US), and Klarna (KLAR.US).

Overall, Bernstein believes that the payments industry is shifting from traditional transaction processing competition to more complex fintech infrastructure competition. AI agents for commercial transactions need to resolve identity and authorization issues, while stablecoins need to prove their economic value in real capital flow scenarios.

For traditional payment giants such as Visa and Mastercard, as well as Adyen, PayPal, and stablecoin infrastructure companies, the key to future competition is not just whether they can handle more transactions, but who can control the core infrastructure connecting consumers, AI agents, merchants, and money flow networks.