Aura Group sees odds of November RBA rate hike rise above 60%

• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s hawkish remarks heightened tightening risks as inflation prospects deteriorated despite softer domestic activity.
• Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point increase on November 3 rose above 60%, from around 27% before Hauser’s remarks.
• A November increase would lift the cash rate to 4.85%; markets fully price a further increase by February 2027.
• Next week’s September-quarter CPI release will be pivotal, with an upside surprise likely to strengthen expectations of a November increase.
• Elevated government spending adds inflation pressure, with Treasury projecting spending at 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26, the highest outside COVID since 1986.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Aura Group Holdings Pte Ltd. published the original content used to generate this news brief on October 23, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.