Daimo backs SpaceX (SPCX.US): MARS and PIE open up a new narrative, Starship 15 flies as a key catalyst

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley maintains an “gain” rating on SpaceX (SPCX.US) in the latest research report, with a target price of 300 US dollars. The bank believes that the market still regards SpaceX as a new cloud service provider with space capabilities, and has yet to fully detect that the company is transforming to “manufacturing, autonomy, robotics, space” (MARS) and “physical intelligence economy” (PIE); at the same time, Starship's 15th flight plans to simultaneously capture a booster and spacecraft for the first time, which is regarded by Morgan Stanley as one of the most important catalysts in SpaceX's 20-year history.

Research questions shift from “why” to “what”

The report begins with Musk's words: “If you ask the wrong question, there is no way to talk about the right answer.” Morgan Stanley said that the previous SpaceX report focused on “why,” but this time it became “what.” According to the research report, customer inquiries about SpaceX have been unexpectedly sluggish in the past two or three months, and the few questions are usually not about SpaceX itself, but about how SpaceX will affect industries such as turbines, data centers, or telecommunications; however, customer interest has reheated up after the third quarter results and conference calls.

According to the research report, the market still sees SpaceX as a new cloud service provider with space capabilities, and the company is undergoing a transformation that the market has not fully detected.

Four keywords: proentropic, MARS, PIE, DVFS

Morgan Stanley said in the report that SpaceX is a “proentropic” company, that is, one of the few companies whose value increased during times of chaos and uncertainty.

According to the research report, SpaceX's mission is to transform energy (e) into intelligence (i) on a large scale through physical intelligence (robots) and infrastructure from Earth to space, accelerate economic growth and avoid stagnation.

MARS stands for Manufacturing (Manufacturing), Autonomy (Autonomy), Robots (Robots), and Space (Space). The research report asked: What other companies can concentrate these four attributes under one company? Investors are also advised to think more about the MARS framework.

PIE stands for “Physical Intelligence Economy” (Physical Intelligence Economy). According to the research report, much of the market's attention is focused on digital assistants that negotiate prices, summarize emails, and plan vacations with online agents, but a few companies focus on “mobile atoms.” The research report emphasizes that atoms are important: they cannot use “vibe coding” (vibe coding) to generate drones, humanoid robots, or surgical robots out of thin air; these must be manufactured; only manufacturers can share PIE.

DVFS stands for dimensionality (breadth), verticality (depth), flexibility (flexibility, steering ability), and speed (speed, matching mission and execution ability). The research report specifically warned that speed does not necessarily mean “fastest”; speed can also be fatal.

Data centers and new clouds may no longer be the focus after a year

The research report predicts that after a year, SpaceX investors may no longer discuss data centers and new cloud businesses. According to the research report, the new cloud construction is more like a “financing strategy”: SpaceX can use its comparative advantage to maximize “intelligence per watt, per dollar, and per second”; making others pay for the computing power infrastructure SpaceX will eventually use to train its own robots is a good idea in Morgan Stanley's opinion.

SpaceX and Tesla: the flywheel of data and manufacturing

According to the research report, Tesla can be regarded as a world-class cutting-edge robot manufacturer. Its products include automobiles, humanoid robots, etc., and collect data from the physical world. Tesla FSD is widely regarded as the world's largest physical superintelligence (SI) deployment. According to the research report, this rapid recursive cycle of data feedback manufacturing and process knowledge is unique; and SpaceX provides infrastructure, computing power, and connectivity layers to further accelerate this flywheel.

Implications for the economy and AI narratives

The research report predicts that developments in the coming weeks and months will make the market pay more timely attention to AI's ability to change the physical world, and that the next round of industrial revolution may create millions or even tens of millions of jobs in the US and around the world. Morgan Stanley agreed with Musk: PIE has a significant economic multiplier effect — if not exponential growth. The bank also believes that the AI/SI deal is currently facing quite a few public questions, and SpaceX will help improve this situation, and its role is clearly underestimated by the market.

The research report suggests that if investors want to lay out MARS and PIE themes, they can start with SpaceX or pay attention to “space shovels.”

Starship's 15th Flight: A Key Catalyst

According to research reports, the Starship's 15th flight is expected to take place in early November, at which time it will try to capture the booster and spacecraft at the same time. Management has confirmed on the call that they will try a “double capture,” and Musk said success was “more likely than impossible.” According to the research report, this is not only the biggest test of Starship's reusability, but is also expected to reduce the market space (TAM) risk for a wider range of businesses, and is one of the most important catalysts in SpaceX's 20-year history. The research report also said that as fundamentals of all major business lines are accelerating, investors will have an opportunity to re-examine SpaceX before the flight.