Strategy (MSTR.US) unveiled the “Golden Fork” signal for the first time in more than three years, and has surged 700% since the last time it appeared!

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Strategy (MSTR.US) flashed the first “Golden Cross” (Golden Cross) since March 2023 — a bullish technical signal that appeared when the 50-day simple moving average crosses the 200-day moving average. The last time this pattern appeared, the stock rose nearly 700% over the next 12 months. This signal may attract momentum traders back to this Bitcoin proxy target.

However, the technical form is still weak. Strategy's 50-day moving average is at $135.67, just slightly above the 200-day SMA at $135.53, while shares are trading around $137.18. More importantly, the stock is still below its 20-day moving average of $147.40 — about 7.5% higher than the current price — which is a significant near-term resistance to any sustained rebound.

The momentum indicator gave little confirmation: the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 42.89, below the neutral threshold of 50; the MACD (Exponential Smoothed Differential Moving Average) reading is -3.72, which is in the negative range.

Beyond the chart: the double pressure of indices and capital structures

Factors outside of the chart also cloud the outlook. The possibility of being removed from the MSCI index raised market concerns about passive fund selling pressure — an unfavorable factor that could depress the stock price regardless of Bitcoin's trend.

Strategy's capital structure adds another layer of complexity: the way the company funds aggressive Bitcoin hoarding is through equity issuance and other mechanisms. These practices dilute shareholders' equity and influence how much upside actually falls into the hands of shareholders in the end.

For investors, the gold fork represents an encouraging shift in the trend structure rather than a guarantee of an immediate rise. Until Strategy regains the 20-day EMA of $147.40 and shows an improvement in momentum, the risk of the index and the cost of financing its Bitcoin strategy remain reasons to be cautious.