Roadster is just an appetizer? Well-known investors predict that SpaceX (SPCX.US) will acquire Tesla (TSLA.US) or officially announce it within a few weeks, at $420 per share

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Gary Black, managing director of Future Fund, recently tweeted predicting that SpaceX (SPCX.US) may announce the acquisition of Tesla (TSLA.US) in full stock within a few weeks, and sees the release of the flying version of the Roadster as an opportunity to integrate Elon Musk's companies.

The well-known investor said on social networking platform X: “I agree with the view that the sole purpose of the Roadster press conference is to prove the rationality of the merger between SpaceX and Tesla. My judgment: In the next few weeks, it will be officially announced that SpaceX will buy Tesla at a price of 420 US dollars/share in the price of its own stock; it may take a year to complete the settlement of this deal.”

However, while making this prediction, he was skeptical about Roadster's financial impact. Black estimates that the sports car's contribution to Tesla's 2029 earnings per share may be as little as $0.06, accounting for only 1.1% of the market's generally anticipated adjusted earnings of $5.40 per share. He also expects a limited boost to the overall brand, saying that few drivers will prioritize performance such as acceleration or overturning in the air in less than 1 second when buying a car.

“Admittedly, the technology and the entire launch itself were amazing,” he commented, while questioning investors' desire for a niche product that will take two to three years to launch. “Third, Tesla's stock price has always declined after a favorable launch, and this time is no exception.”

Prior to this press conference, Black was actually not optimistic about the merger plan. At the time, he proposed that the merger and acquisition would be subject to Tesla's lower valuation multiples, and that stock price fluctuations before the transaction was completed could erode the acquisition premium paid by SpaceX shares. “We remain cautious about Tesla because of its high valuation and downward pressure on profit expectations. At the same time, we believe that unsupervised autonomous driving technology will eventually become homogenized,” he said.

Roadster debut sparks conjecture over Tesla and SpaceX merger

Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster also believes that there are similar motivations behind the Roadster press conference: “The Roadster campaign had two core conclusions. First, this is an engineering strength show. Apart from crushing traditional car companies, it has almost no commercial value. Second, Musk is eager to integrate Tesla and SpaceX.”

Musk himself retweeted the live broadcast with the words “Tesla x SpaceX.” The cooperation between the two sides also extends to research facilities Terafab plans to build at the Texas Gigafactory, where it plans to design and test about 10 chips every year. “I think the original intention of Tesla and SpaceX to jointly build a chip factory was to try this kind of high-risk, high-return cutting-edge project,” Musk said in an interview.

On the other hand, Morningstar is more optimistic about Roadster's commercial prospects than Black or Munster, saying its hard-core engineering capabilities may attract buyers' attention to Tesla's broader product line. However, the agency still predicts that once mass production climbs, the annual delivery volume of the Roadster will be less than 2,000.

According to information, the model has gone through many delays, and Musk currently aims to start production in 2028. Pre-orders for the Performance and Thrust versions are $50,000 and $250,000, respectively, and delivery is not guaranteed. There are also plans to launch an invitation-only version of Rocket.

Wall Street Review merger deal

Barclays pointed out last week that SpaceX's full share acquisition of Tesla is the most likely transaction structure. The bank outlined two possible timelines: an announcement before and after Tesla's annual shareholders' meeting, or another announcement within 6 to 12 months. “While we doubt there will be some financial synergy, the real value lies in vertical integration,” the analyst said.

The agency also believes that the deal will connect Tesla's RoboTaxi and Optimus projects to SpaceX's AI and space infrastructure, while simplifying Terafab's decisions and helping Musk maintain control over voting. However, shareholder approvals and antitrust reviews remain potential barriers. Baird also anticipates that a potential SpaceX merger will dominate Tesla's recent narrative.