Nokia Is Up 76%, But The Story Isn't Finished

Nokia’s year was defined by concrete deals, not vague AI hype, and none was bigger than Nvidia wiring €1b into new shares to back an AI-native push across 5G and future 6G networks. For Nokia shareholders, the return over the past year was 76.3%, including dividends. If an investor had bought on 16 October 2025, what exactly did they need to believe about AI infrastructure, optical demand, and private wireless before this surge of contracts and partnerships hit the headlines?

A Narrative on Simply Wall St is one investor's written case for a company, with its growth, margin and multiple assumptions spelled out. Those assumptions imply an estimated Fair Value.

This theme extends beyond Nokia. See which of 55 AI infrastructure stocks may still merit a closer look.

The Two Nokia Stories Investors Had To Weigh

The shares cost €4.89 at the start of the period, and anyone looking at Nokia had to pick between two very different stories about its future in AI era networks.

The bullish Narrative put Fair Value at €5.75, 18% above the start price. It leaned on the idea that integrating Infinera and pushing deeper into hyperscalers and private wireless could support higher margins and a leaner cost base.

The more cautious view set Fair Value at €4.43, 9% below the start price. It focused on currency pressure, intense competition, and Nokia remaining a challenger in key cloud and AI optical segments.

What The Evidence Did To The Nokia Argument

Nvidia’s €1b equity investment and joint AI-native 5G and 6G push clearly backed the bullish Nokia story around AI infrastructure, optical exposure and private wireless. The Q2 2026 figures told a harder truth. Revenue was €4,815m against €4,443m a year earlier, while net income slipped to €24m and net margin moved from 2.1% to 0.5%. The evidence cut both ways.

The useful takeaway is simple. When a thesis leans on higher-margin AI and optical revenue, it is important to track net profit and margin just as closely as new partnerships and orders.

What Nokia’s Run Up 76% Already Assumes

Nokia trades at €8.42 today, and the selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits below that level, suggesting the recent one year gain reflects confident assumptions about AI, cloud networking and restructuring progress.

The same Narrative leans on AI demand but questions whether optical capacity, portfolio reshaping and cash generation can fully support those expectations. A buyer now effectively assumes AI driven orders translate cleanly into higher, durable earnings. How do execution risks around indium phosphide capacity and restructuring charges test that belief?

"The main factor that must go right is that Nokia Oyj successfully completes its large restructuring and integration programs while reallocating capital toward higher margin AI, cloud, and Network Infrastructure offerings so that cost savings, capacity expansions, and AI related demand translate into sustainable profitability."

One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its lower Fair Value, assumptions and all

Before The Next Story Makes Headlines

You may be late to this rally, but that does not have to mean arriving late to every opportunity. Start with companies whose prices leave room for a different view of their future. Here are three trading below our estimates.

• Company 1 - 46% below our estimate - uses a recent bank acquisition to expand low cost deposits and lending capacity across segments.
• Company 2 - 43% below our estimate - supplies high power copper and optical links into accelerating AI-oriented data center buildouts.
• Company 3 - 35% below our estimate - pushes a super app model to deepen client engagement across credit, payments, savings and commerce.

That is three of the list. See the full list of 191 companies trading below our fair value estimates →

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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