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    Ondas (ONDS) Launches Regna AI And Lands New Orders, Is It A Bargain?

    Simply Wall St·10/16/2026 19:28:51
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    Regna AI launch and new defense orders put Ondas in focus

    Ondas (ONDS) is back on traders’ screens after launching Regna AI with Palantir Technologies and disclosing more than $270 million in orders since June, drawing fresh attention to the stock’s setup.

    All this arrives after a volatile stretch for Ondas, with a 1-day share price return of 3.42% to US$6.35 following the Regna AI headlines, but a year-to-date share price return down 42.38% and a 1-year total shareholder return down 22.56%. The 3-year total shareholder return is very large at around 14x, which signals long term momentum that has recently faded as traders reassess both growth ambitions and execution risk around new defense and AI contracts.

    Scan beyond Ondas and size up other defense and AI plays with the 55 AI infrastructure stocks that traders are watching for the next big contract-driven rerating.

    Ondas now trades at a steep discount to analyst targets and implied fair value, despite the Regna AI headlines and fresh defense orders. Is that a genuine mispricing, or is it simply cautious capital asking hard questions about execution and cash flow?

    Most Popular Narrative: 19.5% Undervalued

    Based on the most-followed narrative, Ondas screens as undervalued, with a fair value of $7.89 against the last close at $6.35. This puts the recent Regna AI excitement in the context of a longer term earnings and growth story.

    If I consider a 3y growth of 80% (I don't think they can keep the 13 fold growth) which should be possible with a 20% profit margin (currently 49.25%), I think a FV of 7.89 is achievable and makes it 13.2% undervalued with a risk level of 10%. If you were to adjust the risk to 15% because of the nature of acquisition based growth, then FV would sit on 6.9 which is fairly valued to current price today (9th October 2026).

    See why 11 investors see Ondas as 20% undervalued.

    According to DownUnder, who built that valuation, the key swing factor is whether Ondas can convert a very large step up in revenue and a 50.4% adjusted gross margin into sustainable cash generation as acquisitions are absorbed and customer deployments repeat at scale.

    The same narrative flags execution and integration challenges, customer concentration and ongoing equity funding as important risks. These sit alongside the SWS DCF indicator that prices Ondas at a steep discount to an estimated future cash flow value of $26.02 per share.

    Result: Fair Value of $7.89 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, the Ondas narrative depends on two pressure points holding up: clean integration of multiple deals, and a shift from equity funded growth toward self funded operations.

    Find out about the key risks to this Ondas narrative.

    Next Steps

    Curious whether the mixed mood around Ondas matches your own read of the business? Move quickly, review both sides of the ledger, and weigh the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

    Looking for more Ondas investment ideas?

    If Ondas has your attention, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to scout fresh setups, compare quality, and keep your watchlist ahead of the crowd.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.