SpaceX Q3 Earnings Countdown: 5 Debates to Watch
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) will post third-quarter financial results next Tuesday, Oct. 20, after the closing bell. The company will host an audio-only webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET the same day to discuss the report.
Also on Friday, Evercore ISI analyst Kutgun Maral reiterated an Outperform rating on SpaceX and raised his price target to $275 from $230. The new target suggests 85% upside from Thursday’s close.
Maral argues SpaceX upcoming earnings report will be judged on bigger questions than quarter-over-quarter performance.
In a preview note, he outlined five debates he expects investors to weigh heading into the print. He also expects a sizable revenue increase, with the AI segment doing most of the heavy lifting.
1. The $100 Billion Run Rate
Revenue is the headline debate. Maral sees SpaceX as well-positioned to exit 2026 with annualized revenue above $100 billion. His estimate sits near $104 billion.
Two drivers stand behind the forecast. Strategic compute deals account for much of the expected growth, while internal revenue growth in the AI and connectivity businesses adds to the total. New agreements should help push the company past the $100 billion mark, according to the note.
2. Compute Capacity
Evercore ISI’s capacity forecast runs ahead of the Street. The firm expects SpaceX to reach roughly 2.3 gigawatts of compute capacity by the end of 2026, above consensus expectations, and views the target as achievable.
More capacity gives the company room to sign additional compute deals. Maral said the expanded footprint could strengthen SpaceX’s market position.
3. 2027 Pricing
Pricing on new 2027 deals is shaping up as a focal point. Maral currently models 2027 pricing at about $30 per watt, a figure he called critical to maintaining revenue streams and limiting downside risk.
The worry is a shift in market conditions. If pricing moves against SpaceX, the company could find itself at a disadvantage on new contracts, which could weigh on the revenue outlook.
4. Capex and Funding
Spending is set to climb sharply. Evercore ISI expects capital expenditures to rise to roughly $151 billion in 2027, an increase the firm believes projected EBITDA growth will overshadow.
Even so, Maral stressed the need to manage the capex trajectory carefully. SpaceX faces significant capital requirements, and its ability to meet them will be vital to sustaining its ambitious growth plans, he wrote.
See More: Top Growth Stocks
5. The Mobile Wildcard
Whether SpaceX launches a competitive mobile service remains unresolved. The outcome hinges on regulatory support and improvements to terrestrial capacity, the analyst said.
Some skepticism surrounds the idea. Still, continued growth in the AI segment could give SpaceX the flexibility to pivot toward hybrid connectivity solutions, Maral said.
Catalysts and Risks
Maral expects new compute deal announcements around the third-quarter report, which he views as favorable for sustained revenue growth. CEO Elon Musk’s comments about ambitious revenue targets have also boosted investor optimism.
Concerns remain. The market continues to worry about execution risk, along with a broader narrative around potential saturation in space and AI. Maral said execution still warrants careful scrutiny.
SPCX Stock Price Activity: SpaceX stock was down 1.81% at $145.93 at the time of publication Friday, according to Benzinga Pro market data.
Photo: Shutterstock