Berenberg Raises Launch Probability, Peak Sales Estimate for AstraZeneca's Hypophosphatasia Therapy

07:00 AM EDT, 10/16/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg lifted its launch probability and peak sales forecast for AstraZeneca's (AZN.L, AZN.ST) efzimfotase, citing positive pediatric data and a "better" tolerability profile for patients with hypophosphatasia. "AstraZeneca hosted a Rare disease investor call to profile efzimfotase for hypophosphatasia (HPP), its next generation enzyme replacement therapy offering a superior profile over Strensiq. We raise our probability of launch to 90% (from 80%) and peak sales to USD4.2bn (from USD3bn) which adds GBP1.5/share to our DrugBank NPV. This assumes rapid adoption in paediatric patients and significant use in adults with paediatric-onset disease. We await the full breadth of ESMO (2026 planner), with an investor event on Monday 26 October," the research firm said Friday. Analysts noted efzimfotase demonstrated positive bone endpoint results in pediatric trials Mulberry and Chestnut, with the therapy featuring smaller injection volume and lower injection burden than Strensiq. "The expert doctor on the call estimates that c40% of patients discontinue Strensiq due to injection-site reactions. AstraZeneca can increase the geographic reach of efzimfotase much earlier than was the case for Strensiq. We consider the competitive landscape to be benign," the note said. Against this backdrop, Berenberg left the British drugmaker's buy rating and price target of 150 pounds sterling unchanged.