Xiaomo Dianping Roadster press conference: Tesla (TSLA.US) aims to show engineering capabilities rather than commercialization plans and maintain a “neutral” rating

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on the evening of October 15, local time, Tesla (TSLA.US) released the long-overdue second-generation Roadster at the SpaceX (SPCX.US) test site in McGregor, Texas. According to a recent review published by J.P. Morgan Chase, this is a two-seater sports car developed in deep collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX. It combines conventional automotive engineering with rocket propulsion technology — ten cold-gas thruster (cold-gas thruster) vents, an advanced multi-mode bottom suction system, plus active aerodynamics.

The judgment given by J.P. Morgan Chase was quite restrained: Tesla's “neutral” rating was maintained, while the target price of $415 was set on September 28, and this report has not been adjusted. What is more noteworthy is J.P. Morgan's long-term attitude towards this stock — rating history shows that Tesla has long been classified as a “reduced holdings” and was not raised to neutral until June 5, 2026, and the target price was lowered all the way from $475 in June to $445 in July and $415 in September.

A car that is going backwards: specifications and presentation

According to the specifications compiled by Massager Gen Chase, the propulsion system of the Roadster is supplied with gas from two ultra-high pressure storage tanks, with a total capacity of about 600 liters and about 250 kg of compressed air, which can generate more than 80 kN of thrust; the entire system uses refillable compressed air rather than special propellant, so propulsion and maneuvering in the air can be carried out repeatedly.

At the bottom is another set of logic: the multi-mode fan system can generate about 2G of suction power, providing extra grip even at low speeds; with adjustable airflow channels and an active rear wing, the vehicle can switch between high pressure and low resistance configurations. According to J.P. Morgan, the two systems together can support more than 2G of lateral cornering force and have the potential to break track records. Other designs include an integrated chassis seat with wire-controlled steering, braking, and throttle.

The performance figures given by management were: a top speed of 230 miles per hour or more, while talking about a more ambitious target — around Mach 0.5 (about 380 mph), and 0-60 acceleration in less than 1 second. Live demonstrations include: 0-60 mph acceleration for 0.81 seconds, upside down a ramp with bottom suction, controlled rotation in the air, and landing after jumping over a line of Tesla cars (including Semis). J.P. Morgan specifically stated that the ramp demonstration was carried out without people in the car.

The media's description of the scene added details: it was a typical Musk press conference — dramatic soundtrack, smoke, mechanical sounds, and a countdown to the launch. Musk said to the cheering crowd, “This is the culmination of a close collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX engineers to create something you haven't seen in any movie.” He then wrote “The future does have flying cars” on social platforms. Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai (Sundar Pichai) also cheered: “What would the FSD version of this thing look like:) Congratulations!”

An eight-year gap between promise and fulfillment

The other side of the press conference was another slippage in the schedule. The Roadster was targeted for mass production in 2028 — and when the prototype was first unveiled in 2017, Tesla promised delivery in 2020. J.P. Morgan also pointed out that the company did not disclose the final sales price, battery capacity, range, or expected production volume.

Another drop: The Roadster has a battery life of over 300 miles on a single charge, which is less than half of the battery life Musk promised in 2017. In terms of price, Musk and executives have not given any target price this time, while Tesla offered a starting price of 200,000 US dollars for the car almost ten years ago.

Order thresholds have been revealed: J.P. Morgan records that the Performance (Performance Edition) requires an initial payment of approximately $5,000 and an additional $45,000 within 10 days; the total deposit for the Thrust (Propulsion Edition) is approximately $250,000 (including aerodynamics, multi-mode suction systems and thrusters); and the single-seat Rocket (Rocket Edition) is for invitation-only buyers. The details on the Tesla reservation page are more complete: the $250,000 deposit for the Thrust version is split into a $5,000 down payment and $245,000 within 10 days, and each customer is limited to one; the Rocket version does not show the deposit amount and is described as a single seat with a “complete flight system”, and the Tesla website directly says “Yes, it can fly”.

A reminder is needed: According to Tesla's US Roadster reservation agreement, the reservation only locks in line and “does not constitute a vehicle purchase or order”; the agreement takes effect after full payment, and the car purchase price is determined only after the configuration is completed.

J.P. Morgan's Two Reservations: Commercialization and Security

J.P. Morgan made it very clear in the report: the press conference mainly showcased the vehicle's engineering capabilities, rather than detailed commercialization plans; management acknowledged that Roadster did not necessarily aim to optimize safety, and that some of its capabilities may face regulatory restrictions. Musk put it more bluntly — “If safety is your primary goal, then don't buy it.”

This also explains why J.P. Morgan remains neutral in the face of such “out of the circle” product news. The bank did not give a new target price in the report, which means that this announcement did not change its valuation framework for Tesla.

Wall Street: Half amazed, half spilling cold water

The market's evaluation of this demo was quite divided.

Optimistic about the symbolic side: Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein wrote in last month's report, “Tesla currently does not have a Halo car (a high-performance luxury car used to showcase the car company's best engineering and technology), and the Roadster will become Tesla's new halo car.”

The party that threw cold water: Deepwater Asset Management managing partner Gene Munster said on social platforms that this was just “an engineering feat, with no commercial value other than embarrassing traditional car companies”; he also interpreted this event as a signal that Musk is pushing for a merger between the two companies — “The Roadster press conference is the latest example of Musk's desire to combine Tesla and SpaceX”, adding that the car is “a hybrid of two technical teams.”

Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, warned before the meeting: “The market reaction is likely to be the same: disappointment due to excessive hype and excessive promises”; he also separately reminded Tesla bulls to “stop advocating TSLA-SPCX deals”, believing that the stock exchange consolidation would be priced according to Tesla's lower valuation multiples, and that arbitrage would erode the premium paid for SpaceX shares before delivery.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives gave a specific probabilistic judgment: the two companies are more than 80% likely to complete the merger by 2027; choosing the SpaceX facility as the launch site is widely interpreted as a deliberate sign of the deepening relationship between the two companies.

In terms of price targets, the three companies have little differences, but the direction is conservative: J.P. Morgan Chase is $415 (set on September 28, neutral), Morgan Stanley is $400 (neutral, Q3 preview on October 16), and Goldman Sachs is $360 (neutral). The average analysts' price target is $397.83.

The real highlight is next Wednesday

Almost all of the analysis points to the same date: after the market on October 21, Tesla will release its third-quarter earnings report. The press conference took place a few days before the third-quarter earnings report, which analysts believe is more important for investors; Goldman Sachs also shared the same view — the outlook for Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus will have a greater impact on stock prices than the quarter itself.

Morgan Stanley maintained neutrality in the three-quarter forecast, with a target price of $400, and listed several key variables: delivery of 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter (only a slight decrease of about 2% year over year, outperforming market expectations for two consecutive quarters), 13.7 GWh of energy storage, 55% North American FSD option rate, estimated gross margin of 16.4% after excluding points; in terms of Robotaxi, Austin's Cybercab fleet grew 8 times to more than 300 units in 30 days, and accumulated unsupervised mileage Having surpassed 1 million miles, Dallas is the next city — but the bank also warned that simply expanding the fleet is not equal to commercial success; vehicle utilization, safety performance, and unit economy are three dimensions that must be verified.

There is also a regulatory variable hanging over the financial report: NHTSA has asked Tesla to make a sworn response on how the pedalless Cybercab is certified according to federal security standards. The response deadline is October 30, nine days after the earnings call.

As for the Roadster itself, Musk described it as “a small thing” as early as 2023 and would not “bring about a major financial change.” For investors, this sports car that can overtake its lead in the air is more like Tesla's extreme exercise in product narrative; what really determines the stock price is still the October 21 earnings report, as well as the Robotaxi and Optimus production lines.