Damocar maintains Tesla (TSLA.US) “neutrality” ahead of Q3 results: the large-scale implementation of Robotaxi is still the core catalyst, and opportunities and risks coexist under high capital expenditure

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Tesla (TSLA.US) will release financial reports after the market next Wednesday (October 21), and Damo will release a forecast report on its results for the third quarter of 2026. Damo's attitude towards Tesla changed to be more constructive, maintaining an equal-weight (Equal-weight) investment rating. The benchmark target price is $400, and the current stock price is $362.44. The report points out that the large-scale implementation of Robotaxi is still Tesla's core stock price catalyst. There has been visible progress in the commercialization of Cybercab driverless taxis, but huge capital expenses have caused cash flow consumption, and valuation pressure still exists. The rise in stock prices is highly dependent on the commercialization verification of the physical AI business.

In terms of operating fundamentals, the traditional vehicle business has shown strong resilience. Tesla delivered 48,6532 cars in the third quarter of 2026, a slight decrease of only 2% from the previous year, outperforming market expectations for two consecutive quarters. High gasoline prices highlight the cost advantage of using electric vehicles. Combined with the 55% FSD fully automatic driving option rate in North America, autonomous driving is becoming an important variable driving demand for car purchases.

However, the overall cost of ownership of electric vehicles is still higher than that of fuel vehicles, and the pressure on purchasing costs in the industry has not been eliminated. The report predicts that after excluding points, the gross profit margin of automobiles is 16.4%, which is slightly lower than the market's unanimous expectations. FSD's regulatory approval process in Europe and China will be a key variable in determining vehicle demand and profit margins.

Robotaxi is Tesla's most important share price catalyst. Currently, the operating density of the Austin region has increased significantly, and commercialization is dawning, but in the future, it is still necessary to complete substantive verification in the three dimensions of vehicle utilization, safety performance, and unit economic efficiency. The region's Cybercab fleet grew 8 times in 30 days, the fleet size exceeded 300 vehicles, the cumulative unsupervised mileage exceeded 1 million miles, and achieved a major breakthrough in the density of urban operations.

However, the report warns that simply expanding the number of fleets is not equal to commercial success. Subsequent markets need to focus on tracking vehicle utilization, safety performance, and unit economic benefits. Compared to blindly pioneering new cities such as Dallas, the improvement in the quality of operation in existing cities is more valuable as a reference. In contrast, the Optimus humanoid robot still maintains careful judgment. Uncertainties in the supply chain, dexterity, and general task capabilities keep its commercialization schedule still vague.

The integrated layout of energy storage, photovoltaics, and computing power has made the energy business the second underestimated growth curve by the market, helping Tesla transform into a comprehensive distributed computing power and power service provider. MegaPod, an energy storage, photovoltaic, and modular AI computing power system, jointly built a distributed electricity and computing power business map, but quarterly shipments fluctuate greatly, and business value needs to be viewed from a medium- to long-term perspective.

The electric truck Semi has significant economic benefits when combined with autonomous driving. Estimates show that autonomous driving can increase the annual profit of bicycles by 6 times, which is another potential highlight. The market should still maintain a cautious perspective on the Optimus humanoid robot business, and there is still great uncertainty about the pace of commercial implementation and large-scale replication capabilities.

Meanwhile, Tesla is under intense capital expenditure pressure. Capital expenditure is expected to reach US$26.4 billion in 2026, higher than the company's US$25 billion guideline, and annual free cash flow is expected to consume US$11.7 billion. The capital is invested in multiple fronts: Robotaxi, humanoid robots, semiconductors, AI computing power, and energy storage. In the context of high capital expenditure, return on investment efficiency has become a core concern in the market. Although improvements in business-side performance have brought optimistic expectations, continued cash consumption and valuation constraints will still suppress the short-term upward space for the company's stock price.

The report uses the SOTP model for segmented valuation. Of the target price of 400 US dollars in the benchmark scenario, the three AI-related businesses of network services, Robotaxi, and humanoid robots contributed a total of 321 US dollars, accounting for the vast majority of the valuation. The target price in the optimistic scenario can reach 835 US dollars, and under the pessimistic scenario, it is only 129 US dollars. The huge valuation range reflects the strong uncertainty of the AI business. According to options market data, the probability that the stock price will rise to $400 in the next 12 months is only 32.1%, and downside risks cannot be ignored.

Overall, Tesla has passed the Robotaxi concept demonstration stage and entered the commercial verification cycle. The vehicle was delivered with a basic resilient undercarriage, but the high capital cost continued to consume cash. Looking ahead, the market is no longer satisfied with fleet size expansion, and utilization, safety indicators, and unit profit model** will be the litmus test for judging the value of physical AI. If commercialization falls short of expectations, high valuations will face the risk of revaluation; once the business model is successful, Tesla will open up new growth space. Investors need to rationally distinguish between technological progress and commercial implementation, and objectively view the company's opportunities and risks.