Anthropic's IPO valuation cools down: Q3 revenue growth slowed, and some investors lowered their valuation to $1.5 trillion

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the IPO valuation forecast for artificial intelligence company Anthropic is cooling down. According to reports, some current and potential investors are considering participating in its IPO at a valuation of about 1.5 trillion US dollars, which is lower than the previous market forecast of about 2 trillion US dollars. This revaluation occurred after the company disclosed a month-on-month slowdown in third-quarter revenue growth.

Q3 revenue was $16.8 billion, and growth slowed from month to month

According to reports, at an investor conference held at the San Francisco headquarters on Wednesday, Claude's parent company Anthropic reported third-quarter revenue of US$16.8 billion, up 45% from US$11.6 billion in the second quarter. Second quarter revenue increased 147% from the first quarter's $4.7 billion.

The above data was disclosed by the media and has not been officially confirmed by Anthropic. Despite this, the slowdown in revenue growth has left some investors disappointed.

At the time of valuation discussions, investors' concerns about the rising cost of AI infrastructure construction and the increasing reliance on debt financing for expansion are intensifying. These concerns, combined with higher-than-expected US inflation data for September, triggered a sharp sell-off in AI-related stocks over the past week. The iShares semiconductor ETF fell for the eighth consecutive trading day on Thursday.

Some investors are still optimistic about the future of AI

However, some investors are still optimistic about the broader AI industry.

“We may no longer see Anthropic publish ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) data, which is actually a good thing. This should force the market to stop paying too much attention to Anthropic/OpenAI's ARR data and turn its attention to the rate of scale growth, which is currently the better measure of artificial intelligence, as this indicator covers Muse, Grok, Gemini, and open source models. “Gavin Baker, chief investment officer of Atreides Management, said in a post on the X platform on Thursday.

Baker also said that Anthropic's positive free cash flow and accelerated growth in October are the reasons he is optimistic about the company's prospects. He said that the company's unit economic efficiency was “far better than expected,” and 75% of the computing power expenditure was used for training.

Anthropic's IPO is seen as a litmus test for AI transactions

Anthropic's listing is becoming a key test to test investors' interest in AI companies. The results are likely to influence market sentiment before OpenAI's possible IPO next year.

The US IPO market has also recently experienced setbacks. Last month, data center operator SB Energy postponed its listing, and nuclear technology company Holtec Nuclear withdrew its listing plan. Smart ring manufacturer Oura also delayed its IPO due to fluctuations in the market environment.

Anthropic's IPO will also provide significant exit and monetization opportunities for supporters behind it. These supporters include top listed tech companies such as Amazon, Alphabet, and Nvidia.

Earlier this month, chaos caused by OpenAI's revenue data shook semiconductor stocks and the broader Nasdaq index. The media initially reported the AI startup's annualized revenue of $70 billion, but later reported that figure was closer to $50 billion.