Berenberg Updates Estimates for Rio Tinto After 'Mixed' Q3 Production Results

03:00 AM EDT, 10/16/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg revised its earnings forecasts for Rio Tinto Group (RIO.L) as part of a model update after the mining giant's "mixed" third-quarter production results. "Across its iron ore operations, Pilbara (Australia) volumes came in at 83.4mt, slightly below our 85.3mt estimate, with shipments of 85.7mt, also a touch below our 86.3mt estimate. Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC) production also came in slightly lower at 2.2mt (versus our 2.5mt estimate; Rio share), where operational initiatives are ongoing to improve pit health; we see downside risk to full-year guidance of 15-18mt unless a strong Q4 is delivered. Across its copper business, volumes were in line at 205kt (versus our 204kt estimate), largely driven by a beat at Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia at 114kt (versus our 95kt) due to higher throughput (and subsequently grades) from the open pit. However, volumes at Kennecott (US) came in lower at 12kt (versus our 29kt estimate), with the rebuild of the flash converting furnace weighing on volumes; we expect a softer Q4 as access is restored to planned mining areas in the open pit," analysts said Thursday. The research firm noted that Rio Tinto affirmed its full-year 2026 production, sales and unit cost outlook, including total iron ore sales of between 343 wet metric tonnes and 366 wet metric tonnes. However, Berenberg said higher diesel prices and foreign exchange fluctuations introduce risks to Pilbara iron ore unit cash cost outlook. Against this backdrop, analysts lowered their 2026 sales, EBITDA and EPS forecasts before raising their projections for the following year. The research firm added it is watching for additional updates on capital releases into the fourth quarter. Berenberg maintained Rio Tinto's buy rating and price target of 87 pounds sterling.