Nexstar Media Group (NXST) Could Be 33% Below Fair Value On DAZN Pacers Deal

Nexstar Media Group (NXST) is back on investor radars after signing a new deal with DAZN to televise and stream 15 Indiana Pacers games across Central Indiana and nearby markets.

Nexstar Media Group shares have been choppy this year, with the 1 day share price return of 2.71% and 7 day gain of 1.57% coming after a 30 day share price decline of 2.46% and a 90 day slide of 10.38% that leaves the year to date share price return down 21.16%. However, the 3 year total shareholder return of 29.84% and 5 year total shareholder return of 29.42% show a much steadier long haul picture as investors weigh deals like the DAZN partnership against recent price weakness.

Spot opportunities other investors may be missing by scanning our curated list of 20 high quality undiscovered gems with fundamentals that are similar to Nexstar Media Group’s mix of media reach and sports content exposure.

Nexstar Media Group trades well below both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates after this recent slide. Where does fair value actually cluster along that spread, and how far is today’s price from it?

Most Popular Narrative: 33.3% Undervalued

The most followed Nexstar Media Group narrative anchors fair value at $246.75 versus the last close of $164.65. This framing presents current pricing as a wide gap that analysts link to specific earnings and cash flow drivers rather than vague sentiment.

The current valuation implies that the market is heavily discounting Nexstar Media Group’s potential to create equity value from debt reduction, further M&A enabled by FCC rule changes, and longer term spectrum monetization through ATSC 3.0 and the EdgeBeam Wireless joint venture.

See why 22 investors see Nexstar Media Group as 33% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $246.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, Nexstar Media Group relies heavily on election-driven political advertising cycles and faces ongoing pressure as nonpolitical linear advertising budgets continue to shift toward other digital platforms.

Find out about the key risks to this Nexstar Media Group narrative.

Next Steps

If this Nexstar Media Group story feels mixed to you, consider acting quickly and testing that instinct against the full balance of risks and potential rewards in the 3 key rewards and 5 important warning signs.

Looking for more ideas beyond Nexstar Media Group?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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