UBS: Diageo to Log Higher Fiscal Q1 Organic Sales on 'Slight' Positive Growth Trends

06:36 AM EDT, 10/15/2026 (MT Newswires) -- UBS Global Research expects Diageo (DGE.L) to report an increase in organic sales for its fiscal first-quarter on the back of "slight" positive growth trends observed over the three-month period. "We forecast Q1 27 org. sales +0.7%, ahead of [Visible Alpha] cons -0.8%, with the main difference mainly due to North America, where we expect shipments to be running ahead of depletions, which should reverse in Q2 as inventory levels are traditionally optimised at H1 and FY," UBS said in a Wednesday note. "Following the recent Capital Markets Day, we think Diageo needs to show improving competitiveness in the key US market in order for the equity story to gather momentum, at least in terms of volume share trends, which is not yet evident following pockets of price repositioning." Looking further ahead, the research firm reduced its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS estimate by 1% as it took into account a stronger US dollar. For fiscal years 2028 and 2029, the adjusted EPS projections were also lowered, alongside reduced adjusted EBIT forecasts. UBS has a neutral rating on the London-listed stock, with a price target of 18.50 pounds sterling. Diageo is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter trading statement on Nov. 5.