Tesla (TSLA.US) welcomed the Roadster press conference on Friday: Musk teases “The Greatest Product Demonstration in History” and unveiled the “Flying Sports Car” that has been warming up for nine years

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Tesla (TSLA.US) stock prices fell on the eve of the Roadster press conference, and CEO Musk was filling expectations for the first actual car demonstration of this electric sports car in nearly nine years. Tesla closed down 2% on Wednesday, with a cumulative decline of 4% this week, leading to its worst weekly performance in nearly three months.

The press conference is scheduled to be broadcast live on Thursday at 7:55 p.m. Central Time (Friday 8:55 a.m. Beijing time). Musk wrote on X: “The new Tesla Roadster qualifies to be the greatest product demo in history.” He's still warming up: “Let's put it this way, this demo is going to explode (BANGER) — probably in a figurative sense, but maybe in the literal sense.” On Wednesday, he added another intriguing teaser: “Timing is everything (Timing is everything).”

A trend that collided with macroeconomic headwinds

Musk's roadster momentum is colliding with an inflation report that has exceeded expectations — it has reignited concerns about the Fed's interest rate hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield once hit about 5.32%, and the NASDAQ index also recorded its worst single-day performance in nearly three months. Another Barclays report on a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX also put pressure on stock prices.

Currently, Tesla's price-earnings ratio based on expected earnings is about 187 times, making it the most expensive stock among the “Big Seven.” Since this year, Tesla's performance has been at the bottom of the “Big Seven”, with a cumulative decline of about 18%.

The presentation I've been waiting for nine years

The outdoor demonstration was originally scheduled to be held on October 1, but was delayed for two weeks due to poor weather forecasts and high winds. Tesla said it has been monitoring the weather conditions together with local meteorologists, and the event can only be carried out outdoors; Musk indicated the reason at the time: “Due to high winds, the new Roadster demonstration was delayed for two weeks.”

Musk has hinted for years that this Roadster can do far more than “drive.” In 2017, he proposed a special upgrade package that would allow the car to fly and jump over short distances; in 2018, he described the SpaceX optional package containing about 10 small rocket propellers, saying that these hardware would improve acceleration, speed, braking, and cornering. “Maybe they can even make a Tesla fly.” He also described a compressed air system — a pressure vessel that would replace the rear seat and change the Roadster from four to two seats. In 2021, he reiterated that the Roadster will be equipped with a propeller; by 2024, he directly stated that “the new Tesla Roadster can fly” and that Tesla has drastically raised its design goals, “even if you ask it to order a car,” there will never be a second such car after that.

The “Timing is Everything” post also contains an egg: the 24-hour clock, 7:55 p.m., or 19:55 p.m., coincides with 1955 — the year Martin McFly traverses through in “Back to the Future.” The relationship between the Roadster and this movie has a long history: in 2019, Musk said “the new Roadster will really make something similar” in response to an animated version of the flying version of Dronin, and in the same year he also stated that “the SpaceX propeller package will be very low-key and hidden behind a license plate.”

Tesla first debuted the next generation Roadster as a lottery egg at the Semi press conference in November 2017. Mass production was originally scheduled for 2020. After repeated delays, it has been almost nine years since its debut.

What do investors care about

Beyond the presentation, investors and pre-order users would like to see a clear path to mass production. Tesla's second-quarter manufacturing progress report still lists the Roadster in the “design and development” stage, and the manufacturing location is undecided. Less than a week after the press conference, Tesla will release its third-quarter earnings report after the market on October 21.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment about Tesla was still “neutral” a week ago, but it has now slipped to “bearish,” and the 24-hour news volume has surged 75%. Some users questioned whether the press conference could raise the stock price: “Musk is trying to win Tesla, haha.” There are also people who question the commercial appeal of this car, point to the years since its debut, and doubt the demand.

Traders also discussed Barclays's report: the bank believes that the merger announcement may be announced before Tesla's annual shareholders' meeting (which must be held on December 6 at the latest) or separately — in the latter case, Barclays expects news within 6 to 12 months. The bank believes the most likely structure is for SpaceX to buy Tesla and Tesla shareholders in exchange for SpaceX shares in an all-stock deal. Some users asked about the share exchange terms: “How could Tesla shareholders not lose money in that deal?” Another said, “No matter how the deal is designed, the loser will be you—not Musk anyway.”