Positioning for the Next Grain Move
Trend Ranking
1. Corn (Most Bearish)
Price = 482.75
7 MA = 493.29
14 MA = 503.89
21 MA = 513.87
Alignment: 7 < 14 < 21. Price is below all averages.
Trend: Strong Bearish
2. Wheat (Bearish)
Price = 669.25
7 MA = 682.82
14 MA = 687.27
21 MA = 700.08
Alignment:
7 < 14 < 21
Price is below all averages
Trend: Bearish
3. Soybeans (Least Bearish / Strongest Market)
Price = 1292.00
7 MA = 1289.00
14 MA = 1299.75
21 MA = 1305.86
7 < 14 < 21 (still bearish)
But price is above the 7-day MA
Holding much closer to longer-term averages than corn or wheat.
Trend: Neutral to Slightly Bearish
Corn has fastest downside momentum. Largest gap between price and 21-day MA (-31.1¢). In a clear downtrend.
Soybeans
Most resilient and trading above the 7-day MA. Closest to a bullish reversal if weather, export demand, or South American issues emerge.
Wheat
Downtrend remains intact.
Similar moving-average structure to corn, but not as extended.
Trade Ideas
Sell Dec Corn rallies into 493-500 using a 480/460 bear put spread.
Why I would
- Weakest moving-average structure
- Price below all averages
- Lower highs/lower lows
- Clearly defined resistance at the 7-day MA and 500 level
Of the three markets, corn currently has the clearest directional technical setup while soybeans offer the best potential bullish reversal candidate.
Bullish Soybean Spread to consider
Get Long Jan '27 Beans
Get Short Nov '26 Beans
Why? If South American weather concerns increase, deferred contracts often gain faster than nearby contracts.
Maximum Risk: Limited to spread movement.
No outright futures risk.
Target: 8-15¢ widening.
Bearish Corn Spread
Short Dec '26 Corn
Long Dec '27 Corn
Why? If harvest pressure continues, nearby contracts can weaken faster than deferred contracts.
Target: Dec'26/Dec'27 spread narrows.
This fits the bearish structure currently visible in December corn.
Call to discuss a plan to be hedged now and also out into ’27.
Tim Healy
Broker
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312 957 4731
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