3 US Retail Stocks Tied To Social Security COLA Spending In 2027

Social Security’s 2027 cost of living adjustment is about to lock in, and that decision could quietly reshape how millions of retirees budget for groceries, prescriptions, and everyday essentials. A 3.5 to 3.6% COLA sounds helpful, yet rising Medicare premiums may absorb part of that boost. This article walks through three US retail stocks that are closely tied to that trade off and how investors might think about their exposure.

The retailers highlighted below are a small sample of what qualifies under this idea. The full screen surfaced 35 more companies with equally compelling narratives that are not covered in this article. To see the wider opportunity set, head straight into the US Senior-Focused Consumer Staples and Pharmacy Retailers screener to analyze, filter, and identify your highest conviction plays tied to senior focused consumer and pharmacy spending.

Kroger (KR)

Overview: Kroger is a large US supermarket and pharmacy retailer that focuses on everyday essentials like groceries, prescriptions, and basic household goods.

Operations: Kroger generates about US$149.3b in revenue from retail operations across the United States, with all reported sales tied to that domestic footprint.

Market Cap: US$36.4b

For a screener centered on senior focused essentials, Kroger matters because it is where a sizeable slice of monthly Social Security checks regularly gets spent.

"The rapid growth in Kroger's e-commerce business, highlighted by adjusted online sales rising around 19% to 20% and the shift of this operation including media into profitability for two consecutive quarters, points to further upside as more grocery demand moves online."

What happens to Kroger’s margins if a single cost efficiency lever stops pulling as hard as management currently expects?

If that margin question is front of mind, the full narrative for Kroger explains in detail how Kroger’s online shift, capital plans, and senior spending trends could still accelerate the story.

Albertsons Companies (ACI)

Overview: Albertsons Companies runs large US supermarket and pharmacy chains where older shoppers routinely fill carts with groceries, prescriptions, and everyday essentials.

Operations: Albertsons generates about US$82.4b from its retail segment and around US$0.8b from unallocated other activities, all in the United States.

Market Cap: US$5.9b

Albertsons Companies sits squarely in the Social Security COLA story because its stores are where a meaningful slice of seniors’ monthly benefits gets turned into food, over the counter health products, and pharmacy spend.

"Expansion and integration of pharmacy and health offerings (20% YoY growth), alongside enhanced digital cross-shopping, is increasing customer engagement, driving more frequent visits, and boosting overall basket size. This directly benefits top-line sales and increases customer lifetime value."

What happens to Albertsons’ margins and dividend appeal if one key pressure on its already thin profitability fails to ease as planned?

If that pressure point worries you, the full narrative for Albertsons Companies shows how Albertsons Companies could still turn pharmacy traffic and digital cross shopping into an accelerating earnings story.

United Natural Foods (UNFI)

Overview: United Natural Foods distributes natural, organic and conventional groceries and wellness products to supermarkets and retail chains that serve everyday household needs.

Operations: United Natural Foods generates about US$17.1b from Natural, US$13.0b from Conventional and US$2.2b from Retail, with eliminations of US$1.1b.

Market Cap: US$2.7b

United Natural Foods matters for this screener because it feeds the supermarket shelves where senior households regularly buy groceries, wellness items and pharmacy adjacent essentials.

"The accelerating trend of food brands and producers bypassing traditional wholesale distributors through direct-to-consumer channels and integrated e-commerce delivery options threatens to structurally erode wholesale volumes at United Natural Foods, putting long-term revenue growth at significant risk."

What happens to United Natural Foods’ improving efficiency story if one pressure on already thin distribution economics intensifies instead of easing?

If that pressure intensifies, read the full narrative for United Natural Foods to see how United Natural Foods could still turn efficiency gains and senior demand into an accelerating recovery story.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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