3 Stocks Riding Mexico’s Grid Buildout As Pemex Spending Faces Questions

Mexico’s push to pour roughly $110b into Pemex, while an IISD study flags many of those oil and gas projects as potentially uncommercial, is quietly changing where serious capital looks for its next edge. Money that avoids long dated fossil bets needs somewhere else to work. This article unpacks how that backdrop links to three stocks with meaningful exposure to renewables and grid infrastructure in Mexico and Brazil.

The three companies below are only a starting sample, and the full screen surfaced 7 more businesses with equally compelling renewables and grid narratives that are not covered here.

If you want to identify and analyze the broader opportunity set across this theme, head straight to the Renewable Energy and Grid Infrastructure in Mexico screener.

Grupo Carso. de (BMV:GCARSO A1)

Overview: Grupo Carso is a Mexican conglomerate that combines retail, industrial manufacturing, infrastructure and construction, and energy operations, with a clear foothold in domestic grid and pipeline projects.

Operations: Grupo Carso generates most of its MX$165.7b business revenue from Commercial (MX$76.2b) and Industrial (MX$50.7b) segments. Infrastructure and Construction (MX$27.5b), Elementia (MX$27.7b), Zamajal (MX$8.7b) and Carso Energy (MX$3.1b) add diversified income streams, primarily in Mexico.

Market Cap: MX$337.3b

Grupo Carso matters for this renewables and grid theme because its infrastructure and energy arms already build and supply much of the hardware that Mexico needs if capital shifts toward transmission, storage, and modern industrial power demand.

"Nearshoring trends are boosting demand in Grupo Condumex's automotive and construction cable sectors due to increasing industrial activity in Mexico. This has increased revenues and capacity utilization, influencing revenue streams."

What happens to Grupo Carso’s margins and project mix if a single key assumption about future grid-focused contracts and execution strength breaks?

That inflection point is exactly what the full narrative for Grupo Carso. de unpacks, highlighting how Grupo Carso could evolve if grid focused contracts accelerate while execution risks shift in the background.

Auren Energia (BOVESPA:AURE3)

Overview: Auren Energia runs a Brazil based platform that develops, owns and trades wind, solar, hydro and transmission assets. This provides pure renewable and grid exposure within this Mexico or Brazil focused theme.

Operations: Auren Energia generates R$6.8b from Generation and R$9.6b from Commercialization, with eliminations of R$2.9b, all sourced within Brazil.

Market Cap: R$16.3b

Auren Energia matters here because it is one of the closest pure plays on Latin American renewables and transmission. It provides a cleaner look at how capital could shift from long dated fossil projects into regulated and contracted power assets.

"Despite expectations that Ordinance 140/2026 could yield around BRL 300 million of curtailment compensation from 2H27 into 2028, the continued structural wind and solar curtailment at 16% and 26% in 2Q26 with system curtailment around 2.6 GWavg points to ongoing generation constraints that may keep EBITDA weaker for several years before any compensation meaningfully supports earnings and cash flow."

The real test for Auren Energia is what happens to margins and cash generation if a single pressure on its contracted portfolio persists.

If that pressure is the real swing factor, the full narrative for Auren Energia illustrates how Auren Energia’s contracted book could still compound value once curtailment trends start to ease.

Engie Brasil Energia (BOVESPA:EGIE3)

Overview: Engie Brasil Energia operates a large hydro, wind, solar and transmission portfolio in Brazil, selling electricity and related services nationwide.

Operations: Engie Brasil Energia generates about R$10.7b from electric energy generation, R$2.5b from transmission and R$0.6b from trading activities.

Market Cap: R$44.9b

Engie Brasil Energia provides exposure to large scale renewables and grid assets in Brazil. This segment is an area where capital often looks when long dated fossil projects in the region are viewed as less attractive on a risk and return basis.

"High and persistent curtailment of intermittent sources, combined with the massive entrance of distributed generation that displaces nonconventional renewables, can cap effective output from new wind and solar assets and limit the contribution these projects make to revenue and operating margins."

The central question for Engie Brasil Energia is how its cash generation would be affected if a single regulatory assumption related to this pressure were to change.

When that regulatory hinge matters this much, the full narrative for Engie Brasil Energia explains how Engie Brasil Energia could see risk recede while contracted cash flows begin to decouple from curtailment pressure.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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