Can nCino (NCNO) Look Undervalued As Its Parlay Integration Expands SBA Lending?
Why the Parlay partnership matters for nCino stock
nCino (NCNO) is in focus after announcing a partnership with Parlay that plugs AI-driven intake directly into its commercial and small business platform for Small Business Administration lenders.
The integration targets a long running paperwork bottleneck in SBA lending and is already active, with Parlay reporting more than $500 million in loan inquiries processed through nCino’s system in 2026.
That Parlay deal lands at an interesting moment for nCino. The stock has climbed 15.83% over the past 90 days yet is still down 20.16% on a year to date share price basis, and longer term total shareholder returns remain weak, with a 5 year total shareholder return decline of 73.75%. Recent momentum therefore looks more like a rebuild in confidence than a full reset of the story.
Scan beyond nCino and line up other AI driven lenders and fintech platforms using our curated list of 35 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash for your watchlist.
Bulls view nCino’s Parlay tie up and new profitability as the start of a reset, while bears highlight a 73.75% decline in 5 year total return. Which story does the current valuation appear to support?
Most Popular Narrative: 15% Undervalued
On the most followed view of nCino, a fair value of $23.08 sits above the recent $19.68 close, tilting the story toward undervaluation and putting more weight on future execution than on the backward looking share price chart.
Expanding the nCino platform's capabilities beyond core loan origination, into onboarding, analytics, commercial pricing, and incentive compensation, provides robust cross sell and up sell opportunities, increasing average contract value and driving both top line revenue and margin expansion over time.
See why 3 investors see nCino as 15% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $23.08 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, rising competition and the risk that AI tools automate workflows nCino currently serves could challenge the bullish narrative if adoption or pricing power stalls.
Find out about the key risks to this nCino narrative.
Another View: What nCino’s P/E Ratio Signals
The first lens on nCino leaned on a fair value of $23.08, which points to upside from the recent $19.68 share price. A very different picture appears once you look at earnings multiples.
nCino trades on a P/E of 61.9x while the US Software industry average sits at 30.4x and close peers average 25.7x. The fair ratio is 39.5x. That gap suggests investors are already paying a premium multiple, so any stumble on execution or earnings quality could matter more than the DCF style upside implies. Which signal do you give more weight to right now?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
So with bulls pointing to reset potential and bears focused on past drawdowns, your next move is to pressure test the numbers yourself and decide where you land. To weigh both sides quickly, start with the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond nCino?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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